Oil Shock and Record Yields Bounce Off: DAX Proves Remarkable Resilience!
The German benchmark index demonstrated enormous stamina at the start of the week. Despite massive macroeconomic headwinds, the DAX closed only slightly in the red, ending trading at 25,374.42 points (-0.13 percent). It was only in late trading that a weakening Wall Street dragged the Frankfurt trading floor just below the flatline. Earlier, the market defied two severe negative factors: Brent crude oil shot up by 3.1 percent to 107.55 US dollars, while the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds rose noticeably to 5.26 percent. This remarkable resilience stems from the market's perception that the high yield level reflects not only inflation concerns but also underlying economic optimism. Nevertheless, the geopolitical situation remains highly fragile. Although indirect US-Iran talks are scheduled, reports of a negotiation offer from Tehran being rejected by Donald Trump kept latent nervousness alive in the background.
Porsche at All-Time Low: Merck Shines on US Impulses, Chart Risks Grow
At the corporate level, a highly divided picture emerged. Merck KGaA took the lead in the DAX with a share price gain of 2.6 percent, driven by positive signals from the ongoing Astro cancer conference in Boston. Outside the benchmark index, Südzucker impressed with strong quarterly figures and a refined outlook, while in the chemical sector, Evonik and BASF were in focus. The fundamental negative highlight, however, was delivered by Porsche's preferred shares, which ruthlessly slid to a new all-time low. From a technical chart perspective, the current sideways movement warrants strict caution: without clear signals of strength, the risk of testing the open price gap at 25,130 points is growing. If a recovery fails to materialize, even a slip below the psychologically important 25,000 mark cannot be ruled out.
Macro Stress Test for Wall Street: US Consumer Confidence and BMW in Focus
Tomorrow, Tuesday, focus will initially turn to the Munich-based automotive sector when BMW holds its strategically pivotal Capital Markets Day. In the afternoon, international markets will face a genuine macroeconomic stress test: a massive slump in US consumer confidence is expected (forecast: 89.2 down from 98.4). Combined with the important US JOLTS labor market report, this could put the current resilience of the stock markets to a severe test. The all-decisive core question is: Will the severe economic slowdown in the American consumer be confirmed, and will the upcoming indirect Middle East talks deliver de-escalating signals in time to rein in the sharply rising oil prices?
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