Breakout Attempt Failed: DAX Bounces Off the 100-Day Moving Average!
The German benchmark index suffered a severe setback in its struggle for a sustained trend reversal. Although the DAX started Tuesday highly dynamically thanks to slightly easing oil prices and a noticeable calming in the bond market—briefly breaching the fiercely contested 100-day moving average at a daily high of 25,453 points—the initial euphoria quickly fizzled out. By the close of trading, the gains had crumbled completely, leaving the index with a minimal discount of 0.07 percent at 25,260 points. Consequently, the stock market barometer remains trapped in a sluggish sideways range, literally wedged between the 200-day line on the downside and the 100-day moving average, which is currently acting as a massive lid.
Mixed Banks and Tech Weakness: Semiconductors Come Under Massive Pressure
At the corporate level, the start of the US earnings season left a fundamentally distorted picture. While Goldman Sachs exceeded market expectations, JPMorgan sent disappointing signals, nipping the hoped-for rally in the bud. More severe, however, was a flaring weakness in the global technology and semiconductor sectors, which also dragged Wall Street deep into the red. On the Frankfurt trading floor, Infineon and Siemens Energy consequently ranked among the biggest losers with drops of over two percent, while Symrise took the day's victory with a strong gain of 3.1 percent. The gloomy sentiment was flanked by final German inflation data: a stubbornly high inflation rate of 3.3 percent in September ruthlessly confirmed that domestic price pressure remains a highly present burden.
Fateful Day for Rates and Tech: US Inflation and ASML as Ultimate Pacesetters!
Today, Wednesday, the financial markets are facing an absolute make-or-break day. Even before the market opens, European equipment manufacturer ASML will deliver the elementary litmus test for the recently stumbling global chip industry with its quarterly figures. In the afternoon, the macroeconomic centerpiece of the trading week follows: US consumer prices. Given that the market has priced in a December Fed rate hike at over 80 percent, this data point resembles a ride on a razor's edge. The all-decisive core question is: Will convincing ASML figures and unexpectedly cool US inflation data provide the double thrust for a technical breakout above the 100-day moving average? Or will a hot price report, disappointing tech balance sheets, and the highly volatile oil price spark a toxic mix that mercilessly drags the DAX downward toward its double lows?
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