Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Europe
● Eurozone unemployment held at 6.4% in August, while the number of unemployed people increased slightly. The ECB expects the jobless rate to decline toward 5.9% by 2028.
● Eurozone economic confidence weakened in September, with the European Commission’s index falling to 97.9 from 98.4 as higher energy costs weighed on businesses and consumers.
● ECB President Christine Lagarde said inflation is likely to rise further, but there is still limited evidence that higher energy costs are generating broader price pressures.
● The ECB raised its inflation forecasts for 2027 and 2028 to 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively, largely reflecting higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict.
● Switzerland’s annual inflation accelerated to 1.0% in September from 0.8%, its highest level since August 2024, as imported energy prices increased.
● The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate at 0%, with inflation now around the midpoint of its 0%-2% target range.
● Spain’s inflation rate climbed to 5.0% in September from 4.6%, extending its run of monthly increases to eight, with fuel and tourism-related prices contributing to the rise.
U.K.
● The U.K. economy grew 0.5% in Q2, up from the previous 0.4% estimate, pointing to stronger momentum than initially reported.
● Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden warned that rates may need to rise again if inflationary pressures intensify.
● U.K. inflation reached 3.1% in August, up from 2.9% in July and well above the BoE’s 2% target.
● Investors are pricing a potential increase in the Bank of England’s policy rate from 3.75% to 4% in November, although policymakers remain cautious.
● BoE policymaker Catherine Mann argued that higher bond yields alone may not be sufficient to cool demand and bring inflation under control.
United States
● Fed officials signalled less urgency over another rate increase, with Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams arguing that policymakers can wait for more data.
● Markets reduced the probability of an October Fed hike to roughly one-third, from more than two-thirds earlier in the week.
● PCE inflation rose 3.4% year over year in August, below expectations, while consumer spending jumped 0.9% and income increased 0.2%.
● The U.S. economy grew at a revised 2.2% annualised rate in Q2, significantly stronger than the previous 1.5% estimate.
● Fed officials remain concerned that AI-related investment is adding to inflationary pressure, particularly through demand for data centres, construction labour and energy.
● U.S. consumer confidence plunged to 81.9 in September, its lowest level since 2014, as rising energy prices increased concerns about inflation and future interest rates.
● U.S. mortgage rates jumped to 7.28%, up from 7.03% in one week, marking their sharpest weekly increase in four years.
● Existing home prices rose 1.9% year over year in July, but U.S. property values declined in real terms for a 14th consecutive month as inflation outpaced nominal price growth.
● Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000, marking a fourth consecutive weekly decline, while continuing claims dropped to 1.7 million.
● U.S. private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, above expectations and a sharp improvement from August’s revised 36,000 gain.
Japan
● Japan has not intervened in currency markets since its record $98.7 billion operation in August, despite renewed pressure on the yen.
● Investors continue to expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates before year-end as inflation remains persistent.
China
● China’s official manufacturing PMI returned to expansion in September at 50.1, ending two consecutive months below 50.
● The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI strengthened to 52.1, its highest level in five months and the tenth consecutive month of expansion.
● The nonmanufacturing PMI also improved, rising to 50.2 from 49.0, pointing to a modest recovery in services and construction activity.
● Beijing announced measures to support the property market, including a 1-percentage-point interest subsidy on eligible first-home mortgages and a cut in the pledged supplementary lending rate to 1.5%.
Australia
● The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, its fourth hike of the year, while leaving the door open to further tightening.
● The RBA highlighted renewed upside risks to inflation from the Middle East conflict and strong AI-related investment demand.
Canada
● Canadian GDP was flat in July, ending three consecutive months of expansion, although preliminary data point to 0.2% growth in August.
● The Bank of Canada expects the economy to expand at a 1.5% annualised rate in the current quarter.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
EUR/USD:
YTD: -4.34%
Weekly: -1.08%
USD/JPY:
YTD: +0.75%
Weekly: +0.40%
GBP/USD:
YTD: -1.83%
Weekly: -0.10%
AUD/USD:
YTD: +4.08%
Weekly: -1.00%
USD/CAD:
YTD: +3.68%
Weekly: +0.59%
EUR/CHF:
YTD: +0.28%
Weekly: -0.90%
● The US dollar nearly reached an 18-month high as interest rate hike expectations grew, while the British pound hit a one-month high against the euro and the Swiss franc dropped to a 16-month low against the dollar.
● The USD/MXN is up more than 2.9%.
● The USD/RON and the GBP/RON are up more than 2.3%.
● The GBP/HUF, the USD/HUF and the EUR/MXN are up more than 1.8%.
● The JPY/EUR and the JPY/AUD are up more than 1.7%.
● The JPY/NZD is up more than 1.5%.
● The USD/CAD is up more than 0.5%.
● The USD/CHF is up more than 0.2%.
● The MXN/JPY is down more than 3.5%.
● The EUR/RUB is down more than 2.8%.
● The CAD/JPY is down more than 1%.
● The EUR/USD and the AUD/USD are down more than 1%.
Commodities
Gold:
YTD: -3.10%
Weekly: -2.06%
Brent:
YTD: +67.38%
Weekly: +2.18%
WTI:
YTD: +60.50%
Weekly: -1.90%
Copper:
YTD: +15.64%
Weekly: -2.84%
● Sugar prices are up more than 8.3%.
● Gasoline RBOB prices are up more than 5.5%.
● Coffee and Heating Oil prices are up more than 3.4%.
● Natural Gas prices are down more than 9%.
● Palladium prices are down more than 7%.
● US Cotton and Orange Juice prices are down more than 6%.
● Soybeans, Corn and Silver prices are down more than 5%.
Indices
Dax40:
YTD: +1.80%
Weekly: -1.97%
S&P 500:
YTD: +11.46%
Weekly: -0.56%
NASDAQ:
YTD: +14.44%
Weekly: -0.37%
DOW JONES:
YTD: +5.86%
Weekly: -0.84%
FTSE 100:
YTD: +5.00%
Weekly: -2.36%
BOVESPA:
YTD: +16.18%
Weekly: +1.76%
● The Japan 225 and the VIX indices are up more than 3.5%.
● The S&P Merval and the Bist 100 index are down more than 7%.
● The IDX30 index is down more than 5.3%.
Shares
Tops
● Accenture: +19.67%
● Synopsys: +15.45%
● Royal Caribbean Cruise: +12.98%
● Lumentum: +12.57%
● Applied Materials: +11.61%
● Lam Research: +10.72%
Flops
● Corteva: -83.99%
● Fair Isaac: -22.74%
● Conagra Brands: -10.02%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 05 October
● 05:00 AM - Japanese - Consumer Confidence (September)
○ Previous: 35.5
○ Forecast: 34
● 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Services PMI (September)
○ Previous: 57.8
○ Forecast: 57
● 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Composite PMI (September)
○ Previous: 55.8
○ Forecast: 54.9
● 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (September)
○ Previous: 48.5
○ Forecast: 51.2
● 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Services PMI Final (September)
○ Previous: 48.0
○ Forecast: 51.4
● 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (September)
○ Previous: 51.8
○ Forecast: 53.8
● 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Services PMI Final (September)
○ Previous: 49.7
○ Forecast: 52.9
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (September)
○ Previous: 52.0
○ Forecast: 53.1
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Services PMI Final (September)
○ Previous: 51.6
○ Forecast: 53
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (September)
○ Previous: 52.5
○ Forecast: 51.7
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Services PMI Final (September)
○ Previous: 52.5
○ Forecast: 51.7
● 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (September)
○ Previous: 47.8
○ Forecast: 48.5
● 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Services PMI Final (September)
○ Previous: 46.8
○ Forecast: 47.5
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (September)
○ Previous: 56.0
○ Forecast: 58.4
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Services PMI Final (September)
○ Previous: 56.5
○ Forecast: 58.7
● 02:00 PM - American - ISM Services PMI (September)
○ Previous: 55.4
○ Forecast: 54
● 11:30 PM - Australian - Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October)
○ Previous: -5.2%
○ Forecast:-1.2%
Tuesday 06 October
● 07:30 AM - European - S&P Global Construction PMI (September)
○ Previous: 43.0
○ Forecast: 43
● 07:30 AM - French - S&P Global Construction PMI (September)
○ Previous: 37.3
○ Forecast: 39
● 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Construction PMI (September)
○ Previous: 48.7
○ Forecast: 48
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Construction PMI (September)
○ Previous: 44.3
○ Forecast: 45.5
● 02:00 PM - Canadian - Ivey PMI s.a (September)
○ Previous: 64.3
○ Forecast: 53
Wednesday 07 October
● 06:00 PM - American - FOMC Minutes
Thursday 08 October
● 06:00 AM - German - Balance of Trade (August)
○ Previous: €21.3B
○ Forecast: €19.5B
Friday 09 October
● 12:30 PM - Canadian - Unemployment Rate (September)
○ Previous: 6.4%
○ Forecast: 6.5%
● 02:00 PM - American - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (October)
○ Previous: 48.1
○ Forecast: 48.6
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 06 October
● Constellation Brands
Thursday 08 October
● Pepsico
● Tilray
Friday 09 October
● Delta Air Lines
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics Calendar GMT, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of October 02, 2026
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