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News & Analysis
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Markets Outlook: Central Banks & Energy

Carolane de Palmas
June 19, 2026

Weekly Outlook

What Happened This Week?

 

Global

  • The planned reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased fears of a prolonged energy shock and reduced the risk of a deeper global slowdown.
  • Despite improving conditions, supply-chain disruptions in energy markets could take months to normalize.
  • Policymakers remain concerned that elevated energy costs could keep inflation sticky and delay interest-rate cuts globally.
  • Central banks continue to balance slowing growth risks against renewed inflation pressures stemming from geopolitical tensions.

 

Eurozone

  • ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane warned that eurozone inflation is likely to remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices.
  • The ECB's recent rate hike reflected concerns that energy-driven inflation could become more persistent.
  • Lane emphasized that ECB policy decisions will remain focused on domestic inflation objectives rather than policy differences with the Federal Reserve.
  • Inflation remains the central bank’s primary concern as officials seek to prevent temporary energy shocks from becoming embedded in the broader economy.

 

United Kingdom

  • The unemployment rate edged down to 4.9% in the three months through April, indicating continued labor-market resilience.
  • Wage growth excluding bonuses remained unchanged at 3.4%.
  • Inflation held steady at 2.8% in May.
  • The combination of stable inflation and a relatively healthy labor market reinforced expectations that the Bank of England will keep rates unchanged in the near term.

 

Ireland

  • Ireland’s central bank now expects GDP to contract by 2.7% this year, reversing an earlier forecast for growth.
  • The downgrade was largely driven by weaker exports from U.S.-owned pharmaceutical and technology companies.
  • Ireland’s highly volatile economic data continues to complicate the broader eurozone growth outlook.
  • ECB forecasts did not fully incorporate Ireland’s latest economic revisions.

 

Switzerland

  • The Swiss National Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0%.
  • Officials signaled a greater willingness to intervene in currency markets if necessary.
  • The SNB raised its inflation forecasts for the coming years due to higher energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions.
  • Policymakers continue to monitor the Swiss franc closely as a key factor in controlling imported inflation.

 

United States

  • Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh shortened the Fed’s policy statement and opted not to provide explicit rate guidance. FOMC voted to keep interest rates unchanged in a range of 3.5%-3.75%.
  • The removal of forward guidance created uncertainty about the future direction of monetary policy.
  • Fed projections shifted noticeably toward tighter policy, with several officials now expecting at least one rate hike before year-end.
  • Policymakers cited stronger-than-expected economic activity, persistent inflation, and AI-related investment demand as reasons for a more hawkish outlook.
  • Housing starts fell 15.4% in May, significantly worse than expected.
  • Building permits also declined, signaling continued weakness in residential construction activity.
  • Homebuilders reported weaker sentiment as affordability challenges and elevated mortgage rates weighed on demand.
  • Initial jobless claims fell to 226,000, suggesting employers remain reluctant to implement large-scale layoffs.
  • Continuing claims increased modestly, but labor-market conditions remain relatively healthy overall.
  • Employment in the information sector has declined sharply since late 2022, reflecting ongoing adjustments across technology-related industries.
  • Enrollment in computer science and information technology degree programs also continued to decline.
  • The labor market remains resilient, although some sectors are showing signs of structural adjustment.

 

Indonesia

  • Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 5.75%.
  • The move was aimed at supporting the rupiah and limiting inflation risks.
  • Analysts expect rates to remain unchanged for the rest of 2026 following the latest increase.
  • The rupiah remains under pressure due to geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about domestic policy direction.

 

Philippines

  • The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its benchmark overnight reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%.
  • Policymakers acted in response to inflation pressures linked to higher energy costs.
  • The central bank expects inflation to exceed its preferred range during both 2026 and 2027.
  • Governor Eli Remolona indicated further tightening remains possible, including larger rate increases if needed.

 

Taiwan

  • Taiwan’s central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.0% for a ninth consecutive quarter.
  • Officials cited manageable inflation pressures following progress toward easing Middle East tensions.
  • First-quarter GDP growth surged thanks to strong demand linked to the artificial intelligence supply chain.
  • Policymakers continue to expect solid economic growth despite inflation remaining slightly above 2%.

 

South Korea

  • The Bank of Korea warned inflation pressures may remain elevated for longer than previously expected.
  • Consumer inflation accelerated to 3.1% in May, the highest level in more than a year.
  • Higher energy costs continue to filter through the economy.
  • Policymakers also highlighted wage growth in the semiconductor sector as a potential source of additional inflationary pressure.

 

Norway

  • Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%.
  • The central bank still expects to raise rates later this year.
  • Core inflation remains elevated at 3.4%, well above the official target.
  • Updated projections suggest interest rates could move above 4.5% before year-end.

 

Sweden

  • The Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%.
  • Officials increased the probability of a future rate hike due to inflation concerns.
  • Policymakers continue to balance slowing domestic growth against the risk of renewed price pressures.
  • The bank’s latest forecasts were prepared before recent diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran.

 

Brazil

  • Brazil’s central bank lowered the Selic rate to 14.25%, marking a third consecutive reduction.
  • Policymakers continue to face a difficult trade-off between supporting growth and containing inflation.
  • Rising government spending and external geopolitical risks remain key challenges for future policy decisions.
  • Global market volatility linked to Middle East developments continues to influence the outlook for Brazilian interest rates.

 

This Week’s Market Movers

 

Forex

Weekly Markets Outlook: Central Banks & Energy
  • The USD/NOK is up more than 3%.
  • The USD/SEK is up more than 2%.
  • The USD/CHF is up more than 1.8%.
  • The USD/CAD is up more than 1.3%.
  • The AUD/NZD, the AUD/CHF and the AUD/GBP are up more than 1%.
  • The NOK/JPY is down more than 2%.
  • The NZD/HKD and the GBP/HKD are down more than 1.80%.
  • The GBP/USD and the NZD/USD are down more than 1.7%.

 

Commodities

Weekly Markets Outlook: Central Banks & Energy
  • US Cocoa prices are up more than 9.90%.
  • US Coffee prices are up more than 4.80%.
  • US Cotton prices are up more than 4%.
  • US Wheat prices are up more than 3.5%.
  • Natural Gas prices are up more than 2.50%.
  • WTI and Brent prices are down more than 8.50%.
  • Silver prices are down more than 6.5%.

 

Indices

Weekly Markets Outlook: Central Banks & Energy

 

  • The Japan 225 index is up more than 8%.
  • The Bist100 index is up more than 7.50%.
  • The VIX index is down more than 22%.

 

Shares

 

Tops

 

Flops

 

Important Events to Follow

 

Monday 22 June

  • 12:30 PM - Canadian - Inflation Rate YoY (May)
    • Previous: 2.8%
    • Forecast: 2.9%
  • 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 50.7
    • Forecast: 50
  • 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 48.7
    • Forecast: 49
  • 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 48.7
    • Forecast: 49.1

 

Tuesday 23 June

  • 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 54.5
    • Forecast: 53.6
  • 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 50.0
    • Forecast: 50.3
  • 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 51.1
    • Forecast: 50.8
  • 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 44.9
    • Forecast: 45.1
  • 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 49.7
    • Forecast: 49.6
  • 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 44.3
    • Forecast: 44
  • 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 50.1
    • Forecast: 49
  • 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 48.8
    • Forecast: 47.9
  • 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 48.1
    • Forecast: 46
  • 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 48.5
    • Forecast: 48
  • 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 51.6
    • Forecast: 52.3
  • 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 47.7
    • Forecast: 46
  • 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 53.9
    • Forecast: 53.4
  • 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 49.3
    • Forecast: 49
  • 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 49.7
    • Forecast: 49.1
  • 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 51.5
    • Forecast: 50.6
  • 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 55.1
    • Forecast: 54.5
  • 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (June)
    • Previous: 50.7
    • Forecast: 50.4

 

Wednesday 24 June

  • 08:00 AM - German - Ifo Business Climate (June)
    • Previous: 84.9
    • Forecast: 84.2

 

Thursday 25 June

  • 06:00 AM - German - GfK Consumer Confidence (July)
    • Previous: -29.8
    • Forecast: -30
  • 12:30 PM - American - Core PCE Price Index MoM (May)
    • Previous: 0.2%
    • Forecast: 0.3%
  • 12:30 PM - American - Durable Goods Orders MoM (May)
    • Previous: 7.9%
    • Forecast: -3.2%
  • 12:30 PM - American - GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q1)
    • Previous: 0.5%
    • Forecast: 1.6%
  • 12:30 PM - American - Personal Income MoM (May)
    • Previous: 0%
    • Forecast: 0.1%
  • 12:30 PM - American - Personal Spending MoM (May)
    • Previous: 0.5%
    • Forecast: 0.4%

 

Major Earnings Reports to Watch

 

Wednesday 24 June

  • Micron Technology

 

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of June 19, 2026

 

 

The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.

 

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Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Forecasts are not guarantees. Rates may change. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions may vary. Platforms’ tools do not guarantee success.

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