Weekly Market Outlook: Oil Nears $100, ECB Pauses & Fed Ahead

Weekly Outlook

What Happened This Week?

Global

• Global household wealth increased 7.3% in 2025 to a record $570 trillion, supported mainly by rising equity markets.
• The United States introduced new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on imports from around 60 trading partners under a revised trade framework targeting forced-labor practices.
• Renewed Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude back toward $100 per barrel, reigniting inflation concerns worldwide.
• Rising oil prices lifted U.S., U.K. and German government bond yields as investors reassessed the outlook for global interest rates.

Eurozone

• The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% after last month's rate increase.
• Policymakers opted to pause while assessing the inflation impact of higher energy prices and renewed geopolitical tensions.
• Financial markets continue to expect additional ECB tightening later this year, with another rate increase largely priced in for the autumn.

Germany

• German investor confidence surged in July to its highest level since February.
• Optimism was supported by planned pension and labor-market reforms together with stronger export activity.
• Confidence in the automotive sector weakened after major restructuring announcements from Volkswagen.

United Kingdom

• U.K. inflation slowed to 2.6% in June, its lowest level in more than a year, helped by lower fuel prices.
• The labor market remained stable, with unemployment holding at 4.9% and wage growth unchanged.
• Markets expect the Bank of England to leave rates unchanged at its next meeting.
• Investors nevertheless continue to anticipate further policy tightening later this year as higher household energy bills are expected to push inflation higher over the summer.

United States

• Markets remain divided ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting as Chair Kevin Warsh has provided little guidance on future policy.
• Fed officials remain split between maintaining current rates and delivering another increase amid persistent inflation risks.
• The average 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.58%, the highest level of the year.
• Existing-home prices reached another record high while elevated borrowing costs continued to limit housing supply.
• The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index declined in June, pointing to softer economic momentum driven by weaker consumer spending.
• Initial jobless claims fell to 187,000, marking a sixth consecutive weekly decline and highlighting continued labor-market resilience.
• Employers continue to favor a "low hiring, low firing" strategy despite slower economic growth.
• Consumer spending strengthened in June, supported by World Cup-related tourism and entertainment.
• Card spending recorded its fastest annual growth in more than four years, while hotels in host cities reported a sharp increase in revenue.

Canada

• Canadian retail sales increased for a fifth consecutive month in May, with fuel sales leading the gains.
• Preliminary estimates point to another increase in retail activity during June.
• Annual inflation eased to 2.8% in June as gasoline prices declined.
• The Bank of Canada's preferred core inflation measures slipped below the 2% target.
• Economists cautioned that renewed increases in oil prices during July could reverse some of the recent improvement in inflation.
• Prime Minister Mark Carney continued trade negotiations with the United States ahead of upcoming tariff deadlines.
• Canada also stepped up efforts to diversify trade relationships and reduce its dependence on the U.S. market.

South Korea

• South Korea's economy expanded 0.6% in the second quarter.
• Strong exports of semiconductors and machinery offset weak domestic demand and lower construction activity.
• The government raised its full-year growth forecast to 3.0%.

Indonesia

• Bank Indonesia unexpectedly kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.75%.
• The pause followed aggressive rate increases in May and June.
• Policymakers continued to monitor pressure on the rupiah and inflation risks linked to higher energy prices.

Turkey

• Turkey's central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 37%.
• Officials warned that higher oil and natural gas prices continue to threaten the inflation outlook.
• The central bank maintained its elevated year-end inflation forecast following recent geopolitical developments.

Argentina

• Moody's Ratings upgraded Argentina's sovereign credit rating and assigned a positive outlook.
• The agency cited improving macroeconomic stability and a lower probability of default.
• Argentina's central bank continued rebuilding foreign-exchange reserves through sustained currency purchases.

New Zealand

• Annual inflation accelerated to 4.1% in the second quarter.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's recent interest-rate increase was largely viewed as a response to imported energy inflation.
• Economists expect future tightening to remain gradual as domestic inflation pressures remain relatively contained.

This Week’s Market Movers

Forex

• The USD/ZAR is up more than 2.5%.
• The EUR/ZAR is up more than 2%.
• The USD/CHF is up more than 1%.
• The CAD/GBP and the AUD/GBP are up more than 0.9%.
• The GBP/NOK is down more than 1.70%.
• The CHF/NOK is down more than 1.50%.
• The GBP/USD is down more than 1.20%.

Commodities

• Brent prices are up more than 13.50%.
• Crude Oil prices are up more than 11.50%.
• Coffee prices are down more than 4.30%.
• Cocoa prices are down more than 3%.

Indices

• The VIX index is up more than 18%.
• The KOSPI index and the Nasdaq index are down more than 3%.
• The Japan225 index is down more than 2.5%.

Shares

Tops

• Nebius: +28.64%
• Super micro computer: +26.42%
• Seagate Technology: +22.52%
• Western Digital: +19.60%
• Lumentum: +18.04%
• Micron Technology: +16.06%
• Teradyne: +15.96%

Flops

• Tesla: -18.25%
• Intuitive Surgical: -17.48%
• STMicroelectronics: -14.37%
• Thomson Reuters: -12.98%

Important Events to Follow

Monday 27 July

• 08:00 AM - German - Ifo Business Climate (July)
  • Previous: 85.6
  • Forecast: 85.1
• 12:30 PM - American - Durable Goods Orders MoM (June)
  • Previous: -4.5%
  • Forecast: 2.3%

Tuesday 28 July

• 02:00 PM - American - CB Consumer Confidence (July)
  • Previous: 91.2
  • Forecast: 91

Wednesday 29 July

• 06:00 PM - American - Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • Previous: 3.75%
  • Forecast: 3.75%
• 06:30 PM - American - Fed Press Conference

Thursday 30 July

• 05:00 AM - Japanese - Consumer Confidence (July)
  • Previous: 33.8
  • Forecast: 34
• 05:30 AM - French - GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q2)
  • Previous: 0.9%
  • Forecast: 0.6%
• 07:00 AM - Spanish - GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2)
  • Previous: 2.7%
  • Forecast: 2.5%
• 08:00 AM - German - GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2)
  • Previous: 0.4%
  • Forecast: 0.4%
• 09:00 AM - European - GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q2)
  • Previous: 0.3%
  • Forecast: 0.7%
• 11:00 AM - UK - BoE Interest Rate Decision
  • Previous: 3.75%
  • Forecast: 3.75%
• 12:00 PM - German - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (July)
  • Previous: 2.3%
  • Forecast: 2.3%
• 12:30 PM - American - Core PCE Price Index MoM (June)
  • Previous: 0.3%
  • Forecast: 0.1%
• 12:30 PM - American - GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q2)
  • Previous: 2.1%
  • Forecast: 1.6%
• 12:30 PM - American - Personal Income MoM (June)
  • Previous: 0.7%
  • Forecast: 0.4%
• 12:30 PM - American - Personal Spending MoM (June)
  • Previous: 0.7%
  • Forecast: 0.2%

Friday 31 July

• 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Manufacturing PMI (July)
  • Previous: 50.3
  • Forecast: 50.4
• 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (July)
  • Previous: 50.2
  • Forecast: 50.3
• 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS General PMI (July)
  • Previous: 50.6
  • Forecast: 50.4
• 03:00 AM - Japanese - BoJ Interest Rate Decision
  • Previous: 1%
  • Forecast: 1%
• 06:45 AM - French - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (July)
  • Previous: 1.8%
  • Forecast: 1.8%
• 09:00 AM - European - Inflation Rate YoY Flash (July)
  • Previous: 2.8%
  • Forecast: 3.0%

Major Earnings Reports to Watch

Monday 27 July

• LVMH
• Galp Energia
• ASTRAZENECA
• COCA-COLA
• Universal Health Services
• Michelin
• KERING

Tuesday 28 July

• KONINKLIJKE
• Tilray
• BOEING
• ORANGE
• United Parcel Service
• VISA
• Mondelez
• Ford Motor
• BARCLAYS
• PayPal
• Electronic Arts
• CTT CORREIOS PORT
• Ferrovial
• GLAXOSMITHKLINE
• Seagate Technology
• EssilorLuxottica
• UNILEVER
• SAFRAN
• Lagardere
• RIO TINTO
• Air Liquide
• Grifols
• CMS Energy

Wednesday 29 July

• Aon
• Nomura
• PROCTER & GAMBLE
• ENI
• Starbucks
• Airbus
• MICROSOFT
• META
• Deutsche Bank
• Chipotle Mexican Grill
• UBS Group
• Cognizant Technology Solutions
• Qualcomm
• Endesa
• AENA
• BIOGEN
• BASF
• CaixaBank
• Intesa Sanpaolo
• Arm
• Banco Comercial
• EDP Renovaveis
• Jeronimo Martins
• Robinhood
• LEGRAND
• Solvay
• Telefonica
• VINCI
• Hermès
• L'Oréal
• Renault
• Danone
• RECKITT BENCKISER
• Vivendi
• Sonae
• Energias De Portugal

Thursday 30 July

• Western Union
• Chesapeake
• COMPASS
• Sanofi
• First Solar
• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
• LLOYDS BANKING
• Adidas
• Advanced Semiconductor Engineering
• AMAZON
• Altria
• APPLE
• Mastercard
• ING GROEP
• Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
• Société Générale
• TechnipFMC
• Air France-KLM
• Prysmian
• Norwegian Cruise Line
• PUMA
• Altri
• Ferrari
• Anheuser-Busch InBev
• HeidelbergCement
• BMW
• SHELL
• Bouygues
• Mizuho Financial
• BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO
• BAE SYSTEMS
• Accor
• ANGLO AMERICAN
• Stellantis
• Veolia Environnement
• SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC
• LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE
• Saint-Gobain
• Teleperformance SE
• ROLLS-ROYCE
• Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion
• Symrise
• Enel
• Cellnex Telecom

Friday 31 July

• Dominion Energy
• WisdomTree Inc
• Credit Agricole
• Moderna
• EXXON MOBIL
• CHEVRON
• Colgate-Palmolive
• Abbvie
• NATWEST
• ENGIE
• Sony
• Sumitomo Mitsui Financial ADR
• Semapa-Sociedade De Investim

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of July 24, 2026

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