Weekly Market Outlook: Central Bank Moves & Data

Weekly Outlook

What Happened This Week?

United States

• The Fed raised its target rate to 3.75%-4.00%, with officials signalling that further tightening could follow as inflation remains elevated.
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the economy and labour market remain strong enough to support higher rates, while indicating that the latest hike could be the start of a broader anti-inflation campaign.
• U.S. jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 196,000 in the week through September 12, while continuing claims dropped to 1.73 million, pointing to continued labour-market resilience.
• U.S. retail sales rebounded 1.2% in August to $773.9 billion, above the 0.8% expected, with GDP-related control-group sales increasing around 1.4%.
• The New York Fed manufacturing index fell sharply to 7.6 in September from 20.6 in August, missing expectations, while price pressures intensified.
• U.S. housing starts declined 2.6% in August to 1.275 million, while building permits fell 2.7%, adding to signs of pressure on the housing sector.
• U.S. mortgage rates are approaching 7%, their highest level since January 2025, potentially weighing further on housing demand and construction.
• Higher energy costs are creating a dilemma for U.S. companies, with some raising prices while others are cutting prices to protect market share.

Europe

• The Bank of England held its key rate at 3.75%, but three of nine policymakers voted for a hike to 4%, keeping the possibility of further tightening alive as energy costs fuel inflation.
• U.K. inflation accelerated to 3.1% in August from 2.9% in July, driven by household energy, petrol and diesel prices, air fares and factory-gate costs.
• U.K. unemployment remained at 4.9% in the three months through July, close to a five-year high, while annual wage growth excluding bonuses held at 3.5%.
• Eurozone industrial production declined 0.1% in July, following a similar fall in June, with Germany and France recording declines of 1.5% and 0.4%, respectively.
• The weakness in industrial output contrasts with improving manufacturer confidence, with activity reportedly expanding at its fastest pace in more than four years in August.

Japan

• The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate to 1.25%, its highest level in 30 years, while signalling that further increases could follow.
• Higher Japanese rates could encourage domestic investors to repatriate capital, with Japanese investors holding around $2.5 trillion in U.S. financial assets.
• A shift in Japanese capital flows could therefore have implications for U.S. Treasuries and broader global markets.

Australia

• RBA Governor Michele Bullock warned that persistent inflation pressures are materialising, with capacity constraints and the Middle East conflict expected to keep inflation elevated.
• Markets are pricing in a near-certain RBA rate increase later this month.

Canada

• The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark rate at 2.25%, while policymakers acknowledged that higher fuel costs could require further rate hikes if they spread into broader prices.
• Officials also warned that higher tariffs on Canadian goods could weaken the emerging economic recovery.
• Canadian inflation held at 3% in August, while core inflation excluding gasoline accelerated to 2.4% from 2.2%.
• Canadian industrial producer prices rose 1.3% in July, above expectations, while raw-material prices increased 3.1% in August and were 22.8% higher year-on-year.
• Canadian housing starts slipped 0.1% in August, while existing-home sales fell 0.7%, adding to signs of a slowing property market.

Asia-Pacific

• Taiwan’s central bank kept its discount rate unchanged at 2% for a 10th consecutive quarter, supported by strong AI-related economic growth despite inflation moving above its 2% warning threshold.
• China’s financial and economic outlook remains influenced by global energy costs and shifting inflation pressures.
• The World Bank mobilised $112 billion in private capital alongside $123 billion of its own financing, highlighting the growing role of private investment in global development funding.

Global Markets

• The WTO warned that increasing fragmentation of global trade into geopolitical blocs could weigh significantly on long-term growth.
• The organisation estimates that a bloc-based trading system could reduce global exports by 18.6% and global economic output by 5.1% by 2050.
• Around 72% of global goods trade remains compatible with non-discriminatory WTO rules, down from 80%.
• Higher energy prices remain a key cross-market risk, influencing inflation expectations, central-bank policy and government bond yields.

This Week’s Market Movers

Forex

• The USD/JPY, the HKD/JPY and the USD/PLN are up more than 1.9%.
• The ZAR/JPY is up more than 1.7%.
• The AUD/JPY is up more than 1.5%.
• The USD/CHF is up more than 1.4%.
• The AUD/CHF is up more than 0.9%.
• The CHF/HKD and the NZD/HKD are down more than 1.2%.
• The NZD/USD and the EUR/USD are down more than 1.1%..

Commodities

• Oats prices are up more than 17.08%.
• US Cocoa prices are down more than 5.72%.

Indices

• The Nasdaq index is up more than 1.5%.
• The Japan 225, the UK 100 and the Kospi indices are up more than 1.3%.
• The Bist100 index is down more than 7%.
• The VIX index is down more than 5.3%.

Shares

Tops

• Revvity: +21.32%
• Crowdstrike: +17.64%
• Dell Technologies: +16.14%
• Moderna: +15.70%
• Generac: +14.07%

• Alexandria Real Estate Equities: +13.68%

   

Flops

• JB Hunt Transport Services: -11.53%
• Coreweave: -10.37%

Important Events to Follow

Tuesday 22 September

• 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 52.0
  • Forecast: 51.7
• 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 53.2
  • Forecast: 52.5
• 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 52.7
  • Forecast: 52

Wednesday 23 September

• 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 48.5
  • Forecast: 49.1
• 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 51.1
  • Forecast: 51
• 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 48.0
  • Forecast: 49.1
• 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 54.3
  • Forecast: 53.6
• 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 51.8
  • Forecast: 51.7
• 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 49.7
  • Forecast: 50.5
• 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 52.0
  • Forecast: 51.7
• 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 52.7
  • Forecast: 52.7
• 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 51.6
  • Forecast: 51.5
• 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 51.7
  • Forecast: 51.7
• 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 52.5
  • Forecast: 52.6
• 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 52.5
  • Forecast: 52.3
• 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 56
  • Forecast: 55.2
• 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 53.9
  • Forecast: 53
• 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 56.5
  • Forecast: 56.4

Thursday 24 September

• KoPrevious: 54.9
• Forecast: 54
• 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 52.5
  • Forecast: 52
• 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)
  • Previous: 53.5
  • Forecast: 52.7
• 08:00 AM - German - Ifo Business Climate (September)
  • Previous: 88.8
  • Forecast: 87.9

Friday 25 September

• 06:00 AM - German - GfK Consumer Confidence (October)
  • Previous: -26.6
  • Forecast: -27.4
• 12:30 PM - American - Durable Goods Orders MoM (August)
  • Previous: 1.1%
  • Forecast: 0.5%

Major Earnings Reports to Watch

Wednesday 23 September

• General Mills

Thursday 24 September

• Costco

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics Calendar GMT, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of September 18, 2026

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