On Monday 5th: American ISM Services PMI
On Tuesday 6th: Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision
On Wednesday 7th: German Balance of Trade and Canadian Ivey PMI
On Thursday 8th: Australian NAB Business Confidence, Chinese Balance of Trade and Canadian Balance of Trade
On Friday 9th: Chinese Inflation Rate YoY and Canadian Unemployment Rate
Monday 5th of August
The U.S. services sector contracted sharply in June, according to the latest ISM Services PMI data. The index plummeted to 48.8, marking the steepest decline since April 2020. This figure significantly undershot market expectations of 52.5, following a May reading of 53.8. The Business Activity Index also contracted, the first time this has occurred since May 2020. New orders and employment both declined. Market participants will closely monitor the release of the July ISM Services PMI data at 02:00 PM GMT to gauge the ongoing health of the U.S. service sector.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Infineon Technologies
● BioNTech
● Tyson Foods
● Beyond Meat
● Loews Corporation
Tuesday 6th of August
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate steady at 4.35% during its June meeting. This decision marked the fifth consecutive pause in tightening monetary policy since November 2023 and aligned with market expectations.
While the central bank acknowledged that inflation remains above its target range, primarily driven by persistent service price increases, it also noted signs of economic slowdown. GDP growth has eased, unemployment is rising, and wage growth has moderated.
Despite these factors, the RBA maintained a cautious stance, indicating that it will closely monitor economic data to determine future policy moves. The bank did not rule out either interest rate hikes or cuts, emphasising its data-dependent approach.
Market participants anticipate the RBA to keep rates unchanged at the next meeting, scheduled for release at 04:30 AM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Bayer
● Zalando
● Amgen
● Uber Technologies
● United Parcel Service
● Novavax
● Fortinet
● Marathon Petroleum
● Barrick Gold
● Super Micro Computer Inc
● Kellogg Company
Wednesday 7th of August
Germany's trade surplus expanded significantly in May 2024, reaching €24.9 billion. This figure surpassed market expectations and marked a substantial increase from the revised April surplus of €22.2 billion. The May surplus was the largest recorded since January. The widening gap between exports and imports contributed to this growth. Market analysts anticipate a slight decline in the German trade surplus for June, forecasting a figure of €24 billion when the data is released at 06:00 AM GMT.
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Canada experienced a significant jump in June 2024, reaching 62.5 from the previous month's 52. This substantial increase far exceeded market expectations of 53. The strong reading marks the eleventh consecutive month of economic growth in Canada, making it the second-highest point in the current growth sequence.
However, the unadjusted PMI also saw a decline, falling from 59.1 in May to 62.4 in June. Despite this slight dip, the overall trend remains positive. Market participants anticipate a moderation in the Ivey PMI for July, with expectations for the seasonally adjusted index falling to 58. This data is set to be released at 2:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Beiersdorf
● PUMA
● Continental
● ABN AMRO
● GLENCORE
● WALT DISNEY
● CVS Health
● McKesson
● Marathon Oil
● Novo Nordisk
Thursday 8th of August
Australia's business confidence experienced a significant boost in June 2024, as evidenced by the surge in the NAB business confidence index to 4 from a revised -2 in May. This marks the highest level of confidence since January 2023.The improvement was broad-based, with seven out of eight industries reporting increased confidence, notably in manufacturing and wholesale sectors. Market observers will closely monitor the release of the Australian NAB Business Confidence index for July, scheduled for 1:30 AM GMT.
China's trade surplus surged to a remarkable USD 99.05 billion in June 2024, significantly exceeding market expectations of USD 85 billion. This represents a substantial increase from the USD 69.80 billion surplus recorded in the same month of the previous year. The June figure marks the largest trade surplus since July 2022, driven by a combination of robust export growth and a decline in imports. Market participants will follow the release of China's balance of trade data for July that will be released at 3:00 AM GMT.
Canada's trade balance shifted into a deficit territory in May 2024, recording a shortfall of 1,926.90 million Canadian dollars. Historically, Canada has maintained a trade surplus, averaging 1,129.65 million Canadian dollars from 1971 to 2024. The country experienced its peak trade surplus of 8,554.40 million Canadian dollars in January 2001, while the largest deficit occurred in December 2018, reaching -5,755.00 million Canadian dollars. Market participants anticipate a narrowing of the trade deficit to a surplus of 2.5 billion Canadian dollars for June. The official data is scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● KBC Group
● Alibaba
● Allianz
● Deutsche Telekom
● Muenchener Rueckversicherungs
● Siemens
● Rheinmetall
● Sony
● Honda Motor
● SBM OFFSHORE
● Eli Lilly & Co
● Gilead Sciences
● Aurora Cannabis
● Target
Friday 9th of August
China's annual inflation rate cooled down in June 2024, reaching 0.2%. This represents a slight decrease from the previous two months' figure of 0.3% and falls short of market expectations of 0.4%. While it marks the fifth consecutive month of consumer price inflation, it's the lowest level recorded since March. This subdued inflation rate reflects the ongoing challenges faced by the Chinese economy as it navigates a fragile recovery path. Market participants will closely monitor the release of the July inflation data at 1:30 AM GMT.
Canada's unemployment rate ticked up in June 2024, reaching 6.4%. This represents a rise from the previous month's 6.2% and marks the highest unemployment rate since January 2022. The increase surpassed market expectations and aligns with the Bank of Canada's assertion that higher interest rates are impacting the labour market. This data strengthens the case for proponents of further interest rate cuts within the central bank's governing council, as they advocate for measures to support the economy. Market participants will closely monitor the July unemployment rate data for the month of July at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Assicurazioni Generali
● Canopy Growth
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