On Monday 29th: Nothing
On Tuesday 30th: French GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel, German GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash, European GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash, German Inflation Rate YoY Prel and American JOLTs Job Openings
On Wednesday 31th: Australian Monthly CPI Indicator, Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI, Japanese BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Japanese Consumer Confidence, French Inflation Rate YoY Prel, European Inflation Rate YoY Flash, and American Fed Interest Rate Decision
On Thursday 1st: Australian Balance of Trade, Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, UK BoE Interest Rate Decision and American ISM Manufacturing PMI
On Friday 2nd: American Non Farm Payrolls and American Unemployment Rate
Monday 29th of July
Major Earnings Releases:
- HEINEKEN
- KONINKLIJKE
- MCDONALDS
- PayPal
Tuesday 30th of July
France's economy showed positive signs in the first quarter of 2024, expanding by 1.1% year-on-year. This growth accelerated from the previous quarter's 0.8% increase, marking the strongest economic performance in three quarters. However, market analysts predict a slowdown in the second quarter, with expectations for the French GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel to fall to 0.8% when the official data is released at 05:30 AM GMT.
Germany's economic performance remained weak in the first quarter of 2024, contracting by 0.2% compared to the same period in 2023. This marks two consecutive quarters of negative growth, which technically defines a recession. However, there are signs of potential improvement as market analysts predict a rise in Germany's GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash for Q2 to 0.4%, with the official data expected to be released at 08:00 AM GMT.
The Eurozone economy showed moderate growth in the first quarter of 2024, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanding by 0.4% year-on-year. Market analysts are expecting a slight acceleration in growth to 0.7%. Official data on European GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash for Q2 is expected to be released at 09:00 AM GMT.
The job market in the United States continued to show strength in May 2024. The number of job openings increased by 221,000 compared to the previous month, reaching 8.14 million. This surpassed analyst expectations of 7.91 million. It's worth noting that April's figures were downwardly revised to 7.919 million, marking the lowest level in three years. Despite this, the positive trend continued in May. Looking ahead to June's data, expected for release at 02:00 PM GMT, market participants anticipate another increase in JOLTs job openings, reaching 8.35 million.
Major Earnings Releases:
- Airbus
- L'Oreal
- Teleperformance
- Fresenius Medical Care
- HeidelbergCement
- Intesa Sanpaolo
- Poste Italiane
- Mitsubishi UFJ Financial ADR
- Energias De Portugal
- Grifols
- Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion
- DIAGEO
- CATERPILLAR
- 3M
- MICROSOFT
- PFIZER
- PROCTER & GAMBLE
- Starbucks
- AMD
- AIG
- Electronic Arts
- Norwegian Cruise Line
- Virgin Galactic
- Chesapeake
Wednesday 31th of July
Australia's inflation rate continued to rise in May 2024, reaching 4.0% year-on-year. This is the highest level since November 2023 and reflects accelerating price growth, particularly in housing and transport sectors. Inflation remained above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2-3%. However, market analysts are expecting some relief in June, with forecasts suggesting a decrease in the Australian Monthly CPI Indicator to 3.7%. The official data for June is scheduled at 01:30 AM GMT.
China's manufacturing activity continued to contract in June 2024, with the official NBS Manufacturing PMI remaining at 49.5. This marks the second consecutive month of stagnation, but aligns with what market analysts had predicted. The PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector. The update on the Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI for July is scheduled at 01:30 AM GMT.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held steady on interest rates at its June meeting, as anticipated by most analysts. This follows their historic move in March, which saw the first rate increase since 2007 and the end of eight years with negative rates. While interest rates remained unchanged at 0% to 0.1%, the BoJ hinted at potentially reducing bond purchases in their upcoming July meeting.
Market participants anticipate no change in interest rates when the BoJ's July decision is released at 04:00 AM GMT. This announcement will also be accompanied by the Bank's updated outlook on economic activity and inflation, providing valuable insights into the health of the Japanese economy.
Consumer sentiment in Japan showed a slight improvement in June 2024. The consumer confidence index rose to 36.4, edging up from a six-month low of 36.2 in May. This increase was slightly below market expectations of 36.5. Market participants will be closely watching the release of the Japanese Consumer Confidence data for July, scheduled for 05:00 AM GMT, to gauge any further shifts in consumer sentiment.
Annual inflation in the Euro Area dipped to 2.5% in June 2024, reflecting a slight easing of price pressures compared to 2.6% in May. This represents a significant slowdown from the 5.5% inflation rate recorded a year earlier. Market participants will be closely monitoring the release of the European Inflation Rate YoY Flash for July, due out at 09:00 AM GMT, to gauge any further changes in inflation.
In June 2024, the Federal Reserve opted to hold interest rates steady for the seventh consecutive meeting, keeping the federal funds target range at 5.25% to 5.5%. This decision aligned with market expectations. The Fed emphasised the need for continued vigilance on inflation, stating they wouldn't consider lowering rates until inflation shows a clear and sustained path back down to their target of 2%.
Interestingly, the Fed's economic projections, represented by the "dot plot," revealed a shift in their outlook. Compared to March, where they anticipated three rate cuts in 2024 and three more in 2025, the June dot plot indicated only one decrease this year and four in 2025.
Market participants expect the Fed to maintain current interest rates at 5.5% when their next decision is announced at 06:00 PM GMT. All eyes will be on the Fed's accompanying statement for any further clues about their future monetary policy direction.
Major Earnings Releases:
- LEGRAND
- SAFRAN
- SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC
- Danone
- Adidas
- Fresenius
- Deutsche Lufthansa
- Tenaris
- Mizuho Financial
- Banco Comercial
- Telefonica
- AENA
- CaixaBank
- GLAXOSMITHKLINE
- HSBC HOLDINGS
- RIO TINTO
- BOEING
- EBAY
- Altria
- Qualcomm
- T-Mobile US
- Cognizant Technology Solutions
- Kraft Heinz
- Robinhood
- META
Thursday 1st of August
Australia's trade surplus on goods narrowed in May 2024, falling to AUD 5.77 billion from a downwardly revised AUD 6.03 billion in April. This missed market expectations of a higher surplus of AUD 6.68 billion. The decrease was driven by import growth outpacing export growth.
Market analysts are predicting an increase in Australia's Balance of Trade for June, with forecasts suggesting a surplus of A$7.3 billion when the data is scheduled for release at 01:30 AM GMT.
China's manufacturing sector showed continued signs of improvement in June 2024. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8, edging up from 51.7 in May. This positive reading exceeded market expectations of 51.2 and marked the highest level since May 2021. The PMI remains above 50, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector.
This upward trend suggests ongoing growth in factory activity. Market participants will be closely following the release of the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI for July, scheduled for 01:45 AM GMT.
The Bank of England decided to leave interest rates steady at 5.25% during their June meeting, aligning with most analysts' predictions. However, the decision wasn't unanimous. Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) favoured a reduction to 5%, and some acknowledged the call was a "finely balanced" one.
This cautious approach comes amidst positive signs on the inflation front. Recent data suggests inflation has returned to the Bank's target of 2%. The MPC acknowledged a slight loosening in the labour market, even though it remains tight by historical standards.
Despite this, they remain committed to a restrictive monetary policy until inflation risks are demonstrably under control. They emphasised their vigilance against persistent inflationary pressures and their willingness to adjust policy based on future economic data and forecasts.
Market participants will be keenly awaiting the Bank of England's next announcement on interest rates, scheduled for release at 11:00 AM GMT. This will provide further insights into the MPC's stance on inflation and the direction of future monetary policy decisions.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI for the United States unexpectedly dipped in June 2024.The index fell to 48.5, down from 48.7 in May. This decline missed market expectations, which were hovering around 49.1. June marked the third consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the PMI reaching its lowest point since February.
Market participants will be paying close attention to the release of the American ISM Manufacturing PMI for July, scheduled for 02:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
- Anheuser-Busch InBev
- Credit Agricole
- GLE
- Veolia Environnement
- BMW
- Merck
- Volkswagen
- Symrise
- Hugo Boss
- Daimler
- Prysmian
- Ferrari
- Toyota Motor ADR
- ING GROEP
- Cellnex Telecom
- BARCLAYS PLC
- LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE
- SHELL
- APPLE
- AMAZON
- BIOGEN
- Booking
- ConocoPhillips
- Moderna
- Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
- Expedia Group
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals
- Rockwell Automation
- Hasbro
- AAON
Friday 2nd of August
The US job market showed signs of moderation in June 2024. The economy added 206,000 jobs, exceeding analyst expectations of 190,000. However, this figure comes after downward revisions to previous months' data. May's initial strong showing of 272,000 jobs was adjusted down to 218,000, and April's numbers were also revised lower to 108,000 from 165,000. Combined, these revisions paint a picture of slightly weaker job growth than previously thought.
Adding to the mixed signals, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, the highest level since November 2021. This increase surprised markets, which had predicted the rate to hold steady at 4%.
Despite the moderation, the job market remains resilient. Market participants anticipate a further slowdown in July, with forecasts suggesting Non-Farm Payrolls will fall to 190,000. They also expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.1%. The official data for July is scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
- ENGIE
- Sumitomo Mitsui Financial
- CHEVRON
- Dominion Energy
- Arm Holdings
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