On Monday 12th: Nothing
On Tuesday 13th: Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change, UK Unemployment Rate, German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and American PPI MoM
On Wednesday 14th: UK Inflation Rate YoY, American Core Inflation Rate YoY, American Inflation Rate YoY and Japanese GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel
On Thursday 15th: Chinese Industrial Production YoY, Chinese Retail Sales YoY, UK GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel, and American Retail Sales MoM
On Friday 16th: UK Retail Sales MoM, American Building Permits Prel and American Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel
Tuesday 13th of August
Australia's consumer sentiment took a downturn in July 2024, as reflected by the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index. The index declined by 1.1% month-over-month to reach a six-month low of 82.7, marking a reversal from the 1.7% increase recorded in June. This marks the fifth decline in consumer confidence so far this year. The persistent threat of inflation and rising borrowing costs have overshadowed the positive impact of tax cuts and other government support measures.
Market participants anticipate a modest improvement in consumer sentiment for August, with expectations for the Westpac Consumer Confidence Change index to rise by 0.5%. The official data is scheduled for release at 12:30 AM GMT.
The United Kingdom's unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% during the March to May 2024 period, matching market expectations and remaining unchanged from the preceding three months. This figure represents the highest unemployment rate since September 2021. The total number of unemployed individuals increased to 1.53 million, primarily driven by those experiencing unemployment for up to six months, which continues to exceed levels observed a year ago.
Market participants anticipate the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.4% for the June period, with the official data set to be released at 6:00 AM GMT.
Germany's economic outlook has dimmed, as reflected in the decline of the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment to 41.8 in July 2024. This marks the first decrease in a year and the lowest level in four months, compared to the previous month's 47.5 and expectations of 42.5. The deterioration in sentiment is attributed to factors such as falling exports,political uncertainty in France, and ambiguity surrounding the European Central Bank's monetary policy stance. However,the current conditions index saw an improvement, reaching its highest point in a year at -68.9.
Market participants anticipate a further decline in the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for August, with expectations set at 39. The official data will be released at 9:00 AM GMT.
Factory gate prices in the United States experienced a modest increase of 0.2% in June 2024, following a revised flat reading in May. This upward trend is reflected in the year-on-year producer inflation rate, which climbed to 2.6%,marking the highest level since March 2023. The core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy components, also saw a significant increase of 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3% annually, surpassing market expectations of 0.2% and 2.5%,respectively.
Market participants anticipate a moderation in producer price inflation for July, with expectations for a month-over-month increase of 0.1%. The official data is scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Henkel AG & Co
● Porsche
● HOME DEPOT
Wednesday 14th of August
The UK's annual inflation rate remained steady at 2% in June 2024, defying market expectations of a decline to 1.9%.This marks a continuation of the low inflation environment experienced since 2021. While prices for restaurants and hotels contributed to the overall inflation rate, rising transport costs also played a role. On the other hand, the cost of clothing and footwear declined, helping to offset some inflationary pressures. Additionally, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices eased slightly.
Market participants will closely monitor the July inflation data, scheduled for release at 6:00 AM GMT, to gauge the ongoing trend in price increases.
The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States continued its downward trend in June 2024, reaching 3.3%. This marks the lowest level in over three years and represents a decline from the previous month's rate of 3.4%.The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is a key indicator closely watched by policymakers and investors.
Market participants anticipate the core inflation rate to remain steady at 3.3% in July, with the official data scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
The United States experienced its third consecutive month of declining annual inflation in June 2024. The rate dropped to 3%, marking the lowest level since June 2023, down from 3.3% in May. This continued cooling of price increases suggests that inflationary pressures are easing within the US economy. Market analysts anticipate the inflation rate to remain steady at 3% for July when the data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Japan's economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2024, confirming the preliminary estimate. This marks a reversal from the previously revised 0.1% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of the previous year. Private consumption, the primary driver of the economy, continued its downward trend, experiencing the steepest decline in three quarters. Consumers reined in spending amid rising living costs and stagnant wages. Additionally, capital expenditure remained weak, while net trade contributed negatively to GDP growth. Government spending, however, provided some support to the economy.
Despite these challenges, market participants anticipate a rebound in the second quarter, with expectations of 0.8% growth. The preliminary GDP data for the second quarter is scheduled for release at 11:50 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● E.ON
● ThyssenKrupp
● RWE
● UBS Group
● CISCO
Thursday 15th of August
China's industrial production grew by 5.3% year-on-year in June 2024, exceeding market expectations of 5%. While this represents a slowdown from the previous month's 5.6% growth, it marks the second consecutive month of expansion.However, the pace of growth is moderating, with June's figure being the lowest since March. This slowdown is attributed to a weakening manufacturing sector as the overall economic recovery remains fragile. On a year-to-date basis, industrial output advanced by 6%.
Market analysts predict a further deceleration in July, with expectations for a year-on-year growth rate of 5% when the data is released at 02:00 AM GMT.
China's retail sales growth slowed significantly in June 2024. The year-on-year increase of 2% fell short of market expectations and marked a substantial decline from the previous month's 3.7% growth. This indicates a weakening consumer spending trend in the country.
Market analysts anticipate a modest recovery in July, with forecasts pointing to a 3% year-on-year increase in retail sales when the data is released at 02:00 AM GMT.
The UK economy expanded slightly in the first quarter of 2024, growing by 0.3% compared to the same period last year.This represents a modest improvement over the initial estimate of 0.2% growth and a rebound from the 0.2% contraction experienced in the previous quarter.
Market analysts anticipate a more robust economic performance in the second quarter, with forecasts pointing to a year-on-year growth rate of 0.9%. The official GDP data for the second quarter is scheduled for release at 6:00 AM GMT.
Consumer spending in the United States plateaued in June 2024, marking a halt to the upward momentum seen in May.After an upward revision of the previous month's data to a 0.3% increase, retail sales held steady in June. This unexpected pause in consumer activity has raised concerns about the overall health of the economy.
Market analysts are anticipating a slight decline in retail sales for July, with expectations for a 0.1% decrease. The official data is scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Release:
● WALMART
Friday 16th of August
British retail sales experienced a significant downturn in June 2024, falling by 1.2% compared to the previous month.This sharp decline contrasts with the 2.9% increase recorded in May and surpasses market expectations of a more modest 0.4% decrease. The unexpected slump is attributed to factors such as election uncertainty, unfavorable weather conditions,and reduced foot traffic.
Market participants will closely monitor the retail sales data for July, scheduled for release at 6:00 AM GMT, to assess the extent of the decline and gauge the overall health of the consumer spending environment in the UK.
Building permits in the United States experienced a significant increase in June 2024, rising by 3.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.454 million. This marks the highest level in three months and surpasses preliminary estimates of 1.446 million. The surge was primarily driven by a substantial 20.7% increase in permits for buildings with five units or more. However, permits for single-family homes declined by 1.8%.
Market analysts anticipate a slight decrease in building permits for July, with forecasts pointing to a rate of 1.45 million.The official data will be released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Consumer sentiment in the United States remained subdued in July 2024. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was revised upward to 66.4, but this still represents the lowest level in eight months. Despite the slight upward adjustment, overall consumer confidence remains fragile.
Market analysts anticipate a further decline in consumer sentiment for August, with expectations for a preliminary reading of 66 when the data is released at 02:00 PM GMT.
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.