● On Monday 22th: Nothing
● On Tuesday 23th: Nothing
● On Wednesday 24th: German GfK Consumer Confidence, French, European, British and American Services and Manufacturing PMI, and Canadian BoC Interest Rate Decision
● On Thursday 25th: German Ifo Business Climate, American Durable Goods Orders MoM and American GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv
● On Friday 26th: American Core PCE Price Index MoM, American Personal Income MoM and American Personal Spending MoM
Monday 22th of July
Major Earnings Releases:
● SAP
● VERIZON
Tuesday 23th of July
Major Earnings Releases:
● Lagardere
● KERING
● TESLA MOTORS
● GENERAL ELECTRIC
● General Motors
● COCA-COLA
● VISA
● Philip Morris
● Lockheed Martin
● Universal Health Services
● Alphabet
Wednesday 24th of July
The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany dipped to -21.8, down from a slightly revised -21.0 in the previous month. This decline comes after a four-month period of rising optimism about both income expectations and economic prospects. Consumers in Germany are now feeling less confident about their financial future and the overall health of the economy.
This shift in sentiment is reflected in a surge in the tendency to save. People are putting away more money in anticipation of tougher times. Unfortunately, the willingness to spend remains low, which could put a damper on economic activity.
Despite the current pessimism, market analysts predict that the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index for August will show some improvement, reaching -19.5 when the data is released at 6:00 AM GMT.
The Bank of Canada lowered its key interest rate by 0.25% to 4.75% during their June 2024 meeting, as most anticipated.This move signalled a potential for further reductions in the future, contingent on inflation continuing its expected decline.The Bank expressed increased confidence that inflation is falling towards their target of 2%, justifying a more relaxed monetary policy stance.
Both of the Bank's preferred measures for underlying inflation dipped below 3% in April and are projected to keep decreasing alongside the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) throughout the year. Additionally, Canada's first-quarter economic growth fell short of the Bank's expectations, while labour market data indicated a tightening job market. These factors further supported the need for more accommodative credit conditions.
However, the Bank acknowledged remaining risks of inflation rising again. Uncertain geopolitical tensions and a relatively hawkish stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve raise questions about how quickly interest rates can be lowered in Canada. Despite this, market participants currently expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady at 4.75% when their next decision is announced at 1:45 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● BNP Paribas
● Carrefour
● Michelin
● ORANGE
● Eurofins Scientific
● Deutsche Bank
● Moncler
● Unicredit
● Jeronimo Martins
● Banco Santander
● Repsol
● Iberdrola
● Endesa
● RECKITT BENCKISER
● Ford Motor
● IBM
● AT&T
● Chipotle Mexican Grill
● Western Union
● Mattel
Thursday 25th of July
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany unexpectedly dipped to 88.6, falling short of forecasts of 89.7 and down from 89.3 in May. This decline reflects a souring mood among German businesses, suggesting the economy is struggling to break free from stagnation.
Breaking down the numbers, the expectations gauge, which measures business outlook for the next six months, fell to 89 from 90.4. However, the current situation assessment remained flat at 88.3. This indicates that businesses are more worried about the future than they are about their current performance.
Diving deeper into specific sectors, the news wasn't uniformly negative. Manufacturing, which had seen three consecutive improvements, took a step back in June. Similarly, business sentiment deteriorated in the trade sector. However, there were some bright spots. Service providers offered a more positive assessment of their situation, while constructors showed less pessimism compared to the previous month.
Despite the mixed signals from different sectors, the overall decline suggests challenges for the German economy. Market participants will be closely watching the release of this data at 8:00 AM GMT to gain further insights into German business sentiment.
In May 2024, new orders for manufactured durable goods in the United States continued a positive trend, edging up by 0.1% compared to the previous month. This follows a slightly lower upward revision of 0.2% for April's numbers. This marks the fourth month in a row that durable goods orders have shown growth, indicating a potential pick-up in manufacturing activity.
Market analysts are predicting a more significant increase of 2.1% in American Durable Goods Orders for June. This data is expected to be released at 12:30 PM GMT.
The US economy grew at a sluggish 1.4% annualised rate in the first quarter of 2024, according to the latest revision. This is marginally higher than the previously estimated 1.3%, but still represents the slowest growth since the contractions experienced in early 2022.
There were some bright spots in the revised data. Investment in non-residential fixed assets, such as factories and equipment, was stronger than initially thought. Residential investment, including housing construction, also saw a larger-than-expected jump. Furthermore, exports grew at a faster pace, and imports were revised downward. Government spending also contributed more positively to growth than previously estimated. Additionally, businesses accumulated less inventory than anticipated, which is a positive sign.
However, consumer spending, the main driver of the US economy, slowed down more than initially expected, which tempers the overall economic picture.
Market participants are forecasting a more robust 2.5% growth rate for the second quarter of 2024 (reported as American GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv) when the data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Releases:
● UCB
● Sanofi ADR
● Dassault Systemes
● Hermes
● Air France-KLM
● Valeo
● Renault
● Accor
● VINCI
● Total
● LVMH
● Publicis Groupe
● Sanofi
● Saint-Gobain
● Vivendi
● EssilorLuxottica
● Enel
● STMicro
● ANGLO AMERICAN
● ASTRAZENECA
● BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO
● LLOYDS BANKING
● RELX PLC
● UNILEVER
● INTEL
● Mastercard
● Union Pacific
● Abbvie
● Mondelez
● Tilray
● TechnipFMC
● CMS Energy
● First Solar
Friday 26th of July
In May 2024, inflation pressures in the United States showed signs of easing, according to the Federal Reserve's preferred measure, the core PCE price index. This index edged up by just 0.1% compared to the previous month, marking the slowest increase since November 2023. This represents a significant slowdown from the 0.3% growth observed in the prior three months.
Even the headline inflation gauge, which includes food and energy prices, held steady for the first time this year. On an annual basis, core PCE inflation also softened, dipping to 2.6% in May from 2.8% in April. This suggests that price increases are gradually decelerating.
Market analysts are expecting a slightly higher increase of 0.2% in the American Core PCE Price Index for June when the data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Personal income in the United States grew at a slightly faster pace in May 2024. Income rose by 0.5% compared to the previous month, reaching $23.924 trillion. This is an acceleration from the 0.3% increase seen in April and surpassed market expectations of a 0.4% rise.
However, market analysts are predicting a slowdown in income growth for June. They forecast American Personal Income to decrease to a 0.3% increase month-over-month when the data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Consumer spending in the United States grew at a slower pace than anticipated in May 2024. It edged up by 0.2% compared to the previous month, falling short of market expectations of a 0.3% increase. This could be a sign of some hesitancy among American consumers, or a return to more normal spending patterns after a period of heightened activity.
Despite the weaker-than-expected May data, market participants remain cautiously optimistic about consumer spending in June. They are forecasting a slight rebound, with American Personal Spending expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month. The data release at 12:30 PM GMT will be watched closely to see if consumer spending picks up or continues on the slower track observed in May.
Major Earnings Releases:
● Umicore
● Air Liquide
● Bouygues
● BASF
● ENI
● NATWEST
● EXXON MOBIL
● Aon
● Colgate-Palmolive
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Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.