Erratic Course in the DAX: Guerrilla War at Sea Stifles Any Rally Fantasy
The German leading index is slipping dangerously into an erratic course. A mixed Wednesday ruthlessly revealed: the upward momentum has completely evaporated. The extreme uncertainty on the trading floor exactly reflects the diplomatic disaster. The U.S. government is increasingly pushing back its ultimatums, while negotiations are effectively on ice. Tellingly: the U.S. Secretary of State had to abruptly abort his flight to Islamabad. It is dawning on the financial world that Washington has massively miscalculated the timetable for its military goals. The fatal consequence: the Strait of Hormuz remains ironclad closed! Iran is relying on a brutal guerrilla war at sea, ruthlessly firing upon and boarding civilian freighters. This asymmetrical tactic is nearly impossible to crack with heavy aircraft carriers, even if large parts of the Iranian navy and air force are already said to be disabled.
Henkel Triumphs, But VW Stock Remains in a Structural Stranglehold
At the individual stock level, defensive titles in particular saved themselves mid-week. Henkel secured the daily victory with a solid gain of 1.2%, closely followed by Siemens Healthineers (+1.1%). The Volkswagen share also made it onto the podium with a premium of 0.9%. But there is no trace of real euphoria in Wolfsburg. The stock simply cannot get going and is, at best, agonizingly drifting sideways. The absolutely necessary, far-reaching structural rebuilds within the group have so far not been enough to regain shattered investor confidence. The danger of a renewed, massive sell-off continues to hang over the stock like a sword of Damocles and correlates strictly with the future development prospects of the VW Group.
The Hour of Truth: Will SAP Drag the DAX Below the 24,000-Point Mark?
The all-important tipping point today, Thursday, however, is named SAP! The Walldorf-based software giant is opening its books and presenting its highly anticipated quarterly report. Given its massive weighting, the SAP stock absolutely has what it takes to dictate the fate of the entire leading index single-handedly. A brilliant report could support the DAX and choke off the ongoing correction. A bitter disappointment, on the other hand, would be the immediate catalyst for a brutal downward spiral. The warning signals are impossible to ignore anyway: the DAX's extremely weak resistance following Tuesday's sell-off exposes Wednesday as a deceptive breather. A renewed plunge below the psychologically critical mark of 24,000 points would absolutely not come as a surprise today!
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