Relief Rally on the US Labor Market: DAX Dynamically Reclaims the 25,000-Point Mark!
The German benchmark index staged an impressive comeback on the trading floor at the end of the week. With a strong price jump of 1.17 percent, the DAX closed at 25,231.20 points, quickly leaving the psychologically essential 25,000-point mark behind it. Earlier, the stock market barometer successfully defended the closely watched 200-day moving average at the daily low of 24,971 points. Although a moderate minus of around 0.7 percent remains on a weekly basis, the strong intraday reversal provided a powerful technical sign of life. The triggering catalyst for this recovery rally came from Washington in the afternoon: the US labor market report turned out relentlessly weaker than forecast.
Paradoxical Market Logic: Weak Macro Data Fuels Massive AI and Tech Rally
With only 29,000 newly created jobs, negative revisions of previous months, and a US unemployment rate rising to 4.2 percent, the stock market's paradoxical leitmotif unfolded in full force: bad economic data mutates into excellent equity news. The cooling US economy massively dampened acute interest rate concerns and caused the probability of a Fed rate hike in October to plunge to 16 percent. Flanked by falling oil prices—driven by speculation about the release of European strategic reserves—investors boldly bought back into the market. The comeback of AI fantasy drove Infineon, Siemens Energy, and Hochtief in particular to the top of the DAX with gains of up to 5.6 percent.
Stress Test for the Upturn: ISM Index and Telekom AI Day Determine the Start of the Week
For the start of the new trading week, an explosive mix of macro data and corporate events moves into focus, while Asian impulses thin out due to holidays. On the corporate side, DAX heavyweight Deutsche Telekom will attract all eyes at noon with an exclusive AI investor day in Bonn. Macroeconomically, however, the fundamental direction will once again be decided in the US afternoon: the ISM index for the service sector acts as a merciless counter-check to the weak job report. The absolute core question is: Will the ISM index confirm the cooldown and thus continue to nourish relieving interest rate fantasies, or does a strong reading threaten to abruptly revive stubborn interest rate concerns for December and immediately choke off the delicate DAX recovery?
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