Weekly Outlook: Global Economy, Sanctions and Markets Today

Weekly Outlook

What Happened This Week?

• U.S. Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to an annual rate of 4.06 million, the highest in seven months, helped by lower mortgage rates.
• Factory activity in the central U.S. expanded for the fourth straight month in October after more than three years of contraction, with price growth picking up.
• Washington imposed new oil sanctions on Russia’s largest producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, in coordination with Europe. Putin called the move an “unfriendly act” that could harm bilateral ties.
• The U.S. and Australia announced plans to invest over $3 billion in critical minerals projects within six months, though details remain limited.
• Inflation accelerated to 2.4% in September in Canada, the highest level in seven months, exceeding economists’ forecast of 2.2%.
• Canadian retail sales fell 0.7% in September after a 1% rise in August, reflecting weaker consumer sentiment and concerns over U.S. trade tensions.
• A Bank of Canada survey showed business confidence at a two-year low, with one-third of firms expecting a recession — up from 28% last quarter.
• U.K. inflation held steady at 3.8% in September, suggesting the Bank of England is unlikely to cut rates next month.
• Swiss watch exports fell 3.1% year-on-year in September to 1.99 billion francs, dragged by a 56% drop in U.S. demand amid 39% tariffs. Exports to mainland China and Hong Kong rose 18% and 21% respectively, helping offset some losses.
• Turkey’s inflation climbed unexpectedly to 33.3% in September, the first increase since May 2024, prompting the central bank to slow its pace of rate cuts.
• China’s economy grew 4.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, its slowest pace in a year but still near the official 5% annual target.
• China’s next five-year plan prioritizes technological self-sufficiency, reduced reliance on the U.S., and stronger domestic consumption to rebalance growth.
• Japan’s exports rebounded 4.2% in September after four months of decline, aided by a 2.3% weaker yen. Shipments to the U.S. fell 13.3%, marking the sixth straight monthly drop.
• Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata said conditions are favorable for a rate increase as inflation nears target, though most economists expect no change at the October meeting.
• The Bank of Korea kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.50% for the third consecutive meeting, as household debt continues to rise.
• Indonesia’s central bank also held its benchmark rate at 4.75%, maintaining a cautious stance amid regional uncertainties.
• Australia’s consumer confidence slipped 1.2 points last week to 85.1 as households reacted to the RBA’s cautious tone on rates.

This Week’s Market Movers

Forex

• The USD/JPY is up more than 1.70%.
• The NZD/JPY is up more than 2.10%.
• The JPY/CAD is down more than 1.90%.
• The GBP/NOK is down more than 1.50%.
• Rupee rose to a 2-month high.

Commodities

• Crude oil and Brent prices increased, as Trump imposed new sanctions on the two biggest Russian oil companies: Lukoil and Rosneft.
• Silver prices posted their biggest one day drop in dollars in more than 14 years on Tuesday.
• Gold prices lost 5.7% on Tuesday, their largest daily slide since 2013.
• Palladium Futures are down more than 13%.
• Natural Gas Futures are up more than 10%.
• Cocoa Futures are up more than 6.30%.

Indices

• South Korea's Kospi hit a new record high and is up more than 5.60%.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up more than 3.15%.
• The VIX index is down more than 15%.
   

Shares

Tops

• Intuitive Surgical: +25.73%
• Edenred: +24.40%
• Halliburton: +20.71%
• Continental: +17.47%
• Avery Dennison: +16.64%
• West Pharceutical Services: +16.01%
• General Motors: +15.49%
• Essilor Luxottica: +15.00%
• Warner Bros. Discovery: +14.06%
• RTX: +13.74%
• Cogna Educacao: +13.71%
• Las Vegas Sands: +13.53%
• Kering: +11.63%
• 3M: +11.09%
• Vamos Locacao de Caminhoes: +10.51%
• Axon: +10.47%
• Auren Energia: +10.43%
• Raizen: +10.24%

Flops

• Fresnillo: -17.11%
• Molina Healthcare: -14.51%
• STMicroelectronics: -12.04%
• Super Micro Computer: -11.26%
• Magazine Luiza: -11.17%
• Endeavour Mining: -11.04%
• Vista: -10.90%
• BNP Paribas: -10.58%
• United Rentals: -10.36%
• Constellation Energy: -10.10%

Important Events to Follow

Monday 27 October

• 08:00 AM - German Ifo Business Climate (October)
  • Previous: 87.7
  • Forecast: 87
• 12:30 PM - American Durable Goods Orders MoM (September)
  • Previous: 2.9%
  • Forecast: -1.2%

Tuesday 28 October

• 07:00 AM - German GfK Consumer Confidence (November)
  • Previous: -22.3
  • Forecast: -23

Wednesday 29 October

• 05:00 AM - Japanese Consumer Confidence (October)
  • Previous: 35.3
  • Forecast: 35.5
• 08:00 AM - Spanish GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q3)
  • Previous: 0.8%
  • Forecast: 0.7%
• 08:00 AM - Spanish GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q3)
  • Previous: 3.1%
  • Forecast: 2.7%
• 01:45 PM - Canadian BoC Interest Rate Decision
  • Previous: 2.5%
  • Forecast: 2.25%
• 06:00 PM - American Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • Previous: 4.25%
  • Forecast: 4.0%
• 06:30 PM - American Fed Press Conference

Thursday 30 October

• 03:00 AM - Japanese BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• Previous: 0.5%
• Forecast: 0.5%
• 06:30 AM - French GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel  (Q3)
  • Previous: 0.8%
  • Forecast: 0.7%
• 09:00 AM - German GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q3)
  • Previous: 0.2%
  • Forecast: 0.1%
• 10:00 AM - European GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q3)
  • Previous: 1.5%
  • Forecast: 1.1%
• 12:30 PM - American GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q3)
  • Previous: 3.8%
  • Forecast: 3.8%
• 01:00 PM - German Inflation Rate YoY Prel (October)
  • Previous: 2.4%
  • Forecast: 2.3%
• 01:15 PM - European ECB Interest Rate Decision
  • Previous: 2.15%
  • Forecast: 2.15%
• 01:45 PM - European ECB Press Conference

Friday 31 October

• 01:30 AM - Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (October)
  • Previous: 49.8
  • Forecast: 50.2
• 01:30 AM - Chinese NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (October)
  • Previous: 50.0
  • Forecast: 50.4
• 07:45 AM - French Inflation Rate YoY Prel (October)
  • Previous: 1.2%
  • Forecast: 1.3%
• 10:00 AM - European Inflation Rate YoY Flash (October)
  • Previous: 2.2%
  • Forecast: 2.1%
• 12:30 PM - American Core PCE Price Index MoM (September)
  • Previous: 0.2%
  • Forecast: 0.2%
• 12:30 PM - American Personal Income MoM (September)
  • Previous: 0.4%
  • Forecast: 0.4%
• 12:30 PM - American Personal Spending MoM (September)
  • Previous: 0.6%
  • Forecast: 0.4%

Major Earnings Reports to Watch

Monday 27 October

• Unicredit

Tuesday 28 October

• UNITEDHEALTH
• STMicro
• Amgen
• Cognizant Technology Solutions
• Robinhood
• Kraft Heinz
• BIOGEN
• HSBC HOLDINGS
• Booking
• EBAY
• Ubisoft Entertainment
• Symrise
• Novartis
• Visa
• Mondelez
• PayPal
• Electronic Arts
• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
• Seagate Technology
• Nomura

Wednesday 29 October

• UBS Group
• Uber Technologies
• CMS Energy
• ConocoPhillips
• Tenaris
• Airbus
• Daimler
• Anheuser-Busch InBev
• Banco Comercial
• Norwegian Cruise Line
• Adidas
• Jeronimo Martins
• Banco Santander
• MICROSOFT
• Alphabet
• META
• CATERPILLAR
• VERIZON
• BOEING
• CVS Health
• Starbucks
• GLAXOSMITHKLINE
• Deutsche Bank
• Chipotle Mexican Grill
• GOOGLE

Thursday 30 October

• Altria
• Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
• SHELL
• Merck
• Credit Agricole
• Eli Lilly & Co
• Dominion Energy
• Repsol
• Prysmian
• Deutsche Lufthansa
• Volkswagen
• PUMA
• CTT CORREIOS PORT
• APPLE
• Mastercard
• Total
• ING GROEP

Friday 31 October

• Colgate-Palmolive
• Intesa Sanpaolo
• Semapa-Sociedade De Investim
• Berkshire Hathaway B
• EXXON MOBIL
• Abbvie
• CHEVRON

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 24 October 2025

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