Global Markets React to Rate Cuts, Trade Deals, and Inflation

Weekly Outlook

What Happened This Week?

• The Trump administration cut tariffs on Chinese fentanyl-related imports from 20% to 10%. In return, China agreed to curb shipments of fentanyl precursors, buy U.S. soybeans, and pause export controls on U.S. industries for a year.
• The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates for the second time this year, setting the benchmark between 3.75% and 4%. Chair Jerome Powell warned that another cut in December is not guaranteed as officials balance strong spending with slower hiring.
• U.S. pending-home sales held steady at their second-strongest pace of the year, with housing inventory reaching a five-year high and offering buyers more options.
• The U.S. and South Korea finalized a $350 billion trade deal that includes $200 billion in cash investments and $150 billion in shipbuilding cooperation. The U.S. will cut tariffs on most South Korean goods, including autos, from 25% to 15%.
• The Bank of Canada lowered its main interest rate to 2.25%, signaling it has few policy tools left as trade tensions with the U.S. pressure growth. Officials said the new level should help keep inflation near the 2% target.
• The European Central Bank held rates steady at 2% for a third consecutive meeting. President Christine Lagarde said the ECB is in a “good place”, with inflation near its 2% goal and global trade tensions easing.
• The eurozone economy grew 0.2% in the third quarter, slightly above forecasts despite higher U.S. tariffs. Germany’s economy is stabilizing, helped by improving business sentiment and a strong labor market, though consumer spending remains weak.
• German business confidence improved, led by stronger expectations for next year’s growth, especially in services and trade. Construction sentiment, however, continued to weaken.
• German consumer confidence fell to its lowest since April as income expectations worsened, suggesting households remain cautious.
• China’s manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in October, with the PMI at 49.0, missing expectations. The sector has been in contraction since April, reflecting weak demand and trade pressures.
• Japan’s central bank kept its overnight call rate at 0.5%, extending its pause since January. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the BOJ needs more clarity on wage negotiations and global economic risks before acting.
• Australia’s inflation jumped 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, driven by higher housing, recreation, and transport costs. The surge likely delays any rate cut expectations.
• South Korea’s new trade deal with the U.S. includes tariff reductions and major investments aimed at deepening industrial and financial cooperation.

This Week’s Market Movers

Forex

• The GBP/USD is down more than 1.30%.
• The AUD/JPY is up more than 1.45%.
• The JPY/AUD is down more than 1.35%.
• The GBP/AUD is down more than 1.75%.
• The EUR/RUB is down more than 1.65%.

Commodities

• Sugar prices are down for the 4th week in a row.
• Gold prices down for the 2nd row in a row.
• Oats Futures are down more than 7.05%.

Indices

• South Korea's Kospi hit a new record high and is up more than 5.55%.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up more than 6.55%, reaching a new record high.
• The VIX index is down more than 7.90%.
   

Shares

Tops

• Teradyne: +27.65%
• Seagate Technology: +22.95%
• C.H Robinson Worldwide: +22.00%
• Airtel Africa: +21.06%
• Cardinal Health: +18.76%
• International Business Machines: +17.03%
• Lam Research Corporation: +16.67%
• Micron Technology: +13.88%
• Standard Chartered: +13.27%
• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals: +12.83%
• Caterpillar: +12.51%
• NVIDIA: +12.45%
• Hypera: +11.41%
• MercadoLibre: +11.95%
• Alphabet: +11.27%
• Polar Capital Technology Trust: +10.39%

Flops

• Fiserv: -47.97%
• Alexandria Real Estate Equities: -27.48%
• Chipotle Mexican Grill: -21.89%
• Deckers Outdoor: -20.12%
• The Cigna Group: -19.25%
• International Paper: -17.86%
• Baxter International: -16.59%
• WPP: -16.14%
• Smurfit WestRock: -15.22%
• F5: -13.76%
• Zebra Technologies: -13.67%
• Garmin: -13.64%
• Rentokil Initial: -12.27%
• STMicroelectronics: -12.16%
• Adidas: -11.31%
• Strategy: -10.82%

Important Events to Follow

Monday 03 November

• 01:45 AM - Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (October)
  • Previous: 51.2
  • Forecast: 50.9
• 08:15 AM - Spanish HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)
  • Previous: 51.5
  • Forecast: 51.7
• 08:30 AM - Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)
  • Previous: 46.3
  • Forecast: 46.4
• 02:30 PM - Canadian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)
  • Previous: 47.7
  • Forecast: 48
• 03:00 PM - American ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)
  • Previous: 49.1
  • Forecast: 49.9

Tuesday 04 November

• 03:30 AM - Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision
  • Previous: 3.6%
  • Forecast: 3.6%
• 03:00 PM - American JOLTs Job Openings (September)
  • Previous: 7.227M
  • Forecast: 7.2M

Wednesday 05 November

• 08:15 AM - Spanish HCOB Services PMI (October)
  • Previous: 54.3
  • Forecast: 54.6
• 03:00 PM - American ISM Services PMI (October)
  • Previous: 50.0

Thursday 06 November

• 12:30 AM - Australian Balance of Trade (September)
• Previous: A$1.825B
• Forecast: A$6.2B
• 09:30 AM - UK S&P Global Construction PMI (October)
  • Previous: 46.2
  • Forecast: 46
• 12:00 PM - UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
  • Previous: 4%
  • Forecast: 4.0%
• 03:00 PM - Canadian Ivey PMI s.a (October)
  • Previous: 59.8
  • Forecast: 55

Friday 07 November

• 03:00 AM - Chinese Balance of Trade (October)
  • Previous: $90.45B
  • Forecast: $97.0B
• 03:00 AM - Chinese Exports YoY (October)
  • Previous: 8.3%
  • Forecast: 7.3%
• 03:00 AM - Chinese Imports YoY (October)
  • Previous: 7.4%
  • Forecast: 7.0%
• 07:00 AM - German Balance of Trade (September)
  • Previous: €17.2B
  • Forecast: €15.6B
• 01:30 PM - Canadian Unemployment Rate (October)
  • Previous: 7.1%
  • Forecast: 7.2%
• 03:00 PM - American Non Farm Payrolls (October)
  • Forecast: 55.0K
• 03:00 PM - American Unemployment Rate (October) 
  • Forecast: 4.4%
• 03:00 PM - American Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (November)
  • Previous: 53.6
  • Forecast: 53
• 03:00 PM - American Non Farm Payrolls (September)
  • Previous: 22K
  • Forecast: 50K
• 03:00 PM - American Unemployment Rate (September)
  • Previous: 4.3%
  • Forecast: 4.3%

Major Earnings Reports to Watch

Monday 03 November

• Marathon Oil
• Loews Corporation
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals

Tuesday 04 November

• AIG
• Marathon Petroleum
• AMD
• Ferrari
• BP
• Gilead Sciences
• Beyond Meat
• Hugo Boss

Wednesday 05 November

• AMC Holdings
• Aurora Cannabis
• McKesson
• Qualcomm
• Toyota Motor
• Halliburton
• Novo Nordisk
• Fortinet
• Kellogg Company
• Barrick Gold
• Grifols
• Bouygues
• Enel
• BMW
• EDP Renovaveis
• Veolia Environnement

Thursday 06 November

• AAON Inc
• Chesapeake
• Moderna
• LEGRAND
• Expedia Group
• Canopy Growth
• Rockwell Automation
• Commerzbank
• Continental
• Air France-KLM
• DHL Group
• Rheinmetall
• Henkel AG & Co
• Solvay
• Zalando
• ENGIE

Friday 07 November

• Honda Motor ADR
• Cellnex Telecom

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 30 October 2025

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