Weekly Outlook
What Happened Last Week?
Global
- OPEC+ agreed to increase output by 188,000 barrels per day in June, shortly after the UAE exited the group
- The UAE’s departure weakens OPEC+ cohesion, with Iraq seen as a potential next defector
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed around 13 million barrels per day from global supply, driving energy volatility
- Despite the shock, major economies show resilience due to strong reserves, policy support, and the AI-driven growth cycle
- The IMF warned prolonged disruption could trigger a global recession
United States
- The Federal Reserve held rates steady, but internal divisions deepened with multiple dissents against signaling future cuts
- Policy debate is shifting toward conditions that could justify rate hikes rather than cuts
- Markets now price a high probability of no rate cuts in 2026
- Inflation pressures intensified, with PCE rising 0.7% in March and 3.5% year-on-year
- Consumer spending rose 0.9%, driven by a surge in energy-related spending
- Manufacturing activity expanded, with the ISM index at 52.7, while price pressures surged to their highest level since 2022
- Consumer sentiment showed mixed signals, improving in some surveys but hitting record lows in others
- Labor market remains stable, with jobless claims falling to 189,000
- Housing data was mixed, with strong housing starts but falling permits and rising foreclosures
- Rising homeownership costs and the end of pandemic support measures are increasing financial stress
- Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, cutting spending on discretionary goods
- Political pressure on the Fed intensified, with Jerome Powell remaining on the board after his term ends, breaking long-standing precedent
- Kevin Warsh’s nomination advanced but faces political resistance and scrutiny over policy direction
Eurozone
- The ECB kept rates unchanged but is moving closer to a potential hike
- Inflation rose to 3.0% in April, the highest since September 2023, driven by energy prices
- The economy grew just 0.1% in Q1, reflecting slowing momentum
- Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since late 2022, and business activity weakened
- Households now expect inflation of 4% over the next year, raising concerns about wage pressures
- German consumer confidence dropped sharply, while business sentiment hit multi-year lows
- Spain’s unemployment rate rose back above 10%, with significant job losses in Q1
United Kingdom
- The Bank of England held rates steady but signaled it is closer to tightening policy
- Policymakers remain cautious amid rising inflation and weak growth dynamics
Canada
- The Bank of Canada decided to keep its key rate unchanged at 2.25%.
- Manufacturing activity rebounded, with PMI rising to 53.3 as firms rushed to secure supplies
- Input costs and output prices surged, reflecting inflation fears tied to the Middle East conflict
- The economy grew at a 1.7% annualized pace in Q1, recovering from a prior contraction
- Ongoing uncertainty around U.S.-Canada trade relations is complicating policy decisions
Japan
- The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% but signaled further hikes with a split vote
- Inflation forecasts were raised, with prices expected to reach 2.8% by 2027
- Growth outlook was downgraded due to rising energy costs and currency weakness
Asia (ex-China)
- Thailand kept rates unchanged after recent cuts, assessing the impact of the Middle East conflict
- Regional focus remains on inflation, trade flows, and central bank responses to energy shocks
Brazil
- The central bank cut its benchmark rate to 14.5% but signaled uncertainty on future moves
- Inflation accelerated to 4.4%, driven by rising costs
Global Markets / Outlook
- Energy prices remain the key driver of inflation, monetary policy expectations, and market direction
- Investors are focused on upcoming U.S. labor data, oil price dynamics, and any signs of de-escalation in the Middle East
- Central banks globally are shifting toward a more cautious or hawkish stance as inflation risks re-emerge
Last Week’s Market Movers
Forex
EUR/USD:
YTD: -0.13%
Weekly: +0.14%
USD/JPY:
YTD: +0.09%
Weekly: -1.75%
GBP/USD:
YTD: +0.99%
Weekly: +0.54%
AUD/USD:
YTD: +8.14%
Weekly: +0.33%
USD/CAD:
YTD: -0.86%
Weekly: -0.61%
EUR/CHF:
YTD: -1.60%
Weekly: -0.86%
- The JPY/CHF is up more than 1.40%.
- The JPY/EUR is up more than 1.30%
- The AUD/USD is up more than 0.80%.
- The NZD/USD is up more than 0.60%
- The ZAR/JPY is down more than 2%.
- The USD/JPY is down more than 1.60%.
- The EUR/JPY is down more than 1.30%.
- The GBP/JPY is down more than 1%.
Commodities
Gold:
YTD: +6.47%
Weekly: -0.06%
Brent:
YTD: +77.00%
Weekly: +3.68%
WTI:
YTD: +76.05%
Weekly: +1.98%
Copper:
YTD: +4.93%
Weekly: -0.05%
- Orange Juice prices are up more than 15.70%.
- US Cocoa prices are up more than 11.30%.
- US Sugar prices are up more than 9%.
- US Soybeans prices are down more than 2.50%.
- Copper prices are down more than 1.90%.
Indices
Dax40:
YTD: -0.85%
Weekly: +0.31%
S&P 500:
YTD: +5.12%
Weekly: +1.31%
NASDAQ:
YTD: +6.95%
Weekly: +2.02%
DOW JONES:
YTD: +2.90%
Weekly: +0.36%
FTSE 100:
YTD: +4.36%
Weekly: -0.90%
BOVESPA:
YTD: +16.26%
Weekly: -2.12%
- The KOSPI index is up more than 5.90%.
- The SP500 index is up more than 1.30%.
- The VIX index is down more than 10%.
- The Bovespa Composite is down more than 2.80%.
Shares
Tops
- ON Semiconductor: +31.49%
- Texas Instruments: +30.23%
- United Rentals: +27.96%
- ARM: +27.89%
- Marvell Technology: +25.18%
- STMicroelectronics: +23.92%
- Microchip Technology: +21.57%
- Strategy: +20.43%
- Masco: +18.55%
- Dell Technologies: +18.14%
- Infineon Technologies: +17.59%
- GE Vernova: +16.98%
- Monolithic Power Systems: +16.59%
- Analog Devices: +16.40%
- Intertek: +11.25%
Flops
- Tractor Supply: -14.70%
- Lulumon Athletica: -13.99%
- Netflix: -13.63%
- Norvegian Cruise Line: -13.50%
- Northrop Grumman: -13.46%
- Braskem: -12.65%
- Eurofins Scientific: -10.46%
- MTU Aero Engines: -10.17%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 04 May
- 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)
- Previous: 48.7
- Forecast: 49.2
- 07:30 AM - Swiss - procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (March)
- Previous: 53.3
- Forecast: 52.5
Tuesday 05 May
- 04:30 AM - Australian - RBA Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 4.1%
- Forecast: 4.35%
- 02:00 PM - American - ISM Services PMI (April)
- Previous: 54.0
- Forecast: 53.7
- 02:00 PM - American - JOLTs Job Openings (March)
- Previous: 6.882M
- Forecast: 6.9M
Wednesday 06 May
- 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Services PMI (April)
- Previous: 52.1
- Forecast: 52.5
- 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Services PMI (April)
- Previous: 53.3
- Forecast: 52.5
- 02:00 PM - Canadian - Ivey PMI s.a (April)
- Previous: 49.7
- Forecast: 50
Thursday 07 May
- 01:30 AM - Australian - Balance of Trade (March)
- Previous: A$5.686B
- Forecast: A$ 4.0B
- 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Construction PMI (April)
- Previous: 45.6
- Forecast: 46
Friday 08 May
- 06:00 AM - German - Balance of Trade (March)
- Previous: €19.8B
- Forecast: € 17.8B
- 12:30 PM - Canadian - Unemployment Rate (April)
- Previous: 6.7%
- Forecast: 6.7%
- 12:30 PM - American - Non Farm Payrolls (April)
- Previous: 178K
- Forecast: 95.0K
- 12:30 PM - American - Unemployment Rate (April)
- Previous: 4.3%
- Forecast: 4.3%
- 02:00 PM - American - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (May)
- Previous: 49.8
- Forecast: 50
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 04 May
- Tyson Foods
- Loews Corporation
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Tuesday 05 May
- PFIZER
- Electronic Arts
- Rockwell Automation
- Intesa Sanpaolo
- Marathon Petroleum
- AMD
- PayPal
- Super Micro Computer
- Ferrari
- Anheuser-Busch InBev
- Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co
- HSBC
- Hugo Boss
- BioNTech
- AMC
- Banco de Sabadell
- COMPASS
- Unicredit
Wednesday 06 May
- Kraft Heinz
- WALT DISNEY
- Infineon Technologies
- Uber Technologies
- Novo Nordisk
- Arm
- CVS Health
- Tenaris
- Banco Comercial
- EDP Renovaveis
- HeidelbergCement
- Fresenius SE & Co
- Continental
- Deutsche Lufthansa
- Zalando
- BMW
- Daimler
- Jeronimo Martins
- CTT CORREIOS PORT
- Fortinet
- Novavax
Thursday 07 May
- Robinhood
- MCDONALDS
- McKesson
- SHELL
- Expedia Group
- LEGRAND
- Solvay
- Bouygues
- ENGIE
- Energias De Portugal
- Swiss Re
- Rheinmetall
- Poste Italiane
Friday 08 May
- Toyota Motor
- Sony
- Commerzbank
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of May 04, 2026
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