Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
United States
● Factory activity surged, with output posting its strongest increase in four years as firms rushed to build inventories amid supply fears
● The manufacturing rebound was partly driven by “panic buying,” but the boost is expected to be temporary
● Higher energy costs pushed up business expenses and prices charged to customers
● Retail sales rose 1.7% in March, the fastest gain in over three years, largely driven by a 28% rise in gasoline prices
● Excluding gasoline, consumer spending remained solid, suggesting resilience but rising pressure on budgets
● Inflation pressures are leading companies to introduce new fees and surcharges to protect margins
● Jobless claims edged up to 214,000, while continuing claims rose slightly, reflecting a stable but slow-moving labor market
● The labor market continues to show a “low hire, low fire” dynamic, with limited layoffs overall
● Immigration restrictions have not delivered clear labor market benefits, with wage growth slowing and unemployment edging higher
● Large layoffs are becoming more accepted by investors, with some companies seeing stock gains after workforce cuts
● Political pressure on the Fed intensified, with debates around independence and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as next chair
● Warsh signaled support for rate cuts but warned persistent inflation could undermine confidence in central bank independence
Eurozone
● Manufacturing activity improved as firms accelerated orders ahead of potential shortages
● Inflation rose to 2.6% in March, driven by higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict
● The ECB signaled caution, with no immediate policy shift expected
● Policymakers warned that excessive government energy support could force more aggressive rate hikes
United Kingdom
● Unemployment fell to 4.9%, mainly due to fewer people seeking work rather than stronger hiring
● The labor market outlook is weakening as higher energy prices threaten growth
● The Bank of England faces a trade-off between rising inflation and a softening labor market
Canada
● Inflation rose to 2.4% in March, with gasoline prices jumping over 20%
● Industrial prices increased 2.4%, while raw material costs surged 12%, driven by energy
● Rising costs are lifting inflation expectations among businesses
● Housing market dynamics remain mixed, with slower revenue growth but resilient demand for new homes
● Homes are selling faster than listings overall, highlighting a mismatch between buyer expectations and seller pricing
Japan
● Trade data showed strong export and import growth in March, but the full impact of the Middle East conflict is not yet visible
● Energy supply risks and higher import costs are expected to weigh on growth and influence monetary policy
India
● The central bank kept rates unchanged, maintaining a neutral stance
● Policymakers warned that inflation risks remain elevated due to heavy reliance on Middle East energy and trade links
Asia (ex-China)
● Manufacturing activity strengthened as firms front-loaded orders amid supply concerns
● The Middle East conflict is disrupting energy flows to Asia, raising inflation risks across the region
Philippines
● The central bank raised its policy rate to 4.50% due to worsening inflation outlook
● Inflation is expected to exceed the upper target range in the coming years
Indonesia
● The central bank held rates at 4.75%, continuing its pause to support currency stability and manage inflation
● Policymakers remain cautious amid global uncertainty and energy market volatility
Turkey
● The central bank kept its policy rate at 37.0%, monitoring rising inflation risks from higher energy prices
● Leading indicators point to a potential pickup in underlying inflation
Global
● Manufacturing activity picked up across major economies as firms reacted to supply risks and rising prices
● The Middle East conflict disrupted key energy routes, driving up oil and gas prices globally
● Higher energy costs are feeding into inflation, increasing business costs and squeezing margins
● Supply chain disruptions and uncertainty are pushing firms to stockpile goods, distorting short-term demand trends
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The USD/THB is up more than 1.50%.
● The USD/ZAR is up more than 1.40%.
● The USD/HUF is up more than 1.30%.
● The EUR/RUB is down more than 1.50%.
Commodities
Gold:
● London Gas Oil prices are up more than 21%.
● Heating Oil prices are up more than 17.50%.
● Brent Oil prices are up more than 16%.
● WTI prices are up more than 13%.
● Orange Juice prices are down more than 10%.
● Silver prices are down more than 8.40%.
● Palladium prices are down more than 8.30%.
Indices
● The VIX index is up more than 7%.
● The KOSPI index is up more than 4%.
● The Bovespa Composite is down more than 3%.
Shares
Tops
● ON Semiconductor: +31.49%
● Texas Instruments: +30.23%
● United Rentals: +27.96%
● ARM: +27.89%
● Marvell Technology: +25.18%
● STMicroelectronics: +23.92%
● Microchip Technology: +21.57%
● Strategy: +20.43%
● Masco: +18.55%
● Dell Technologies: +18.14%
● Infineon Technologies: +17.59%
● GE Vernova: +16.98%
● Monolithic Power Systems: +16.59%
● Analog Devices: +16.40%
● Intertek: +11.25%
Flops
● Tractor Supply: -14.70%
● Lulumon Athletica: -13.99%
● Netflix: -13.63%
● Norvegian Cruise Line: -13.50%
● Northrop Grumman: -13.46%
● Braskem: -12.65%
● Eurofins Scientific: -10.46%
● MTU Aero Engines: -10.17%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 27 April
● 06:00 AM - German - GfK Consumer Confidence (May)
○ Previous: -28.0
○ Forecast: -30
Tuesday 28 April
● 03:00 AM - Japanese - BoJ Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 0.75%
○ Forecast: 0.75%
Wednesday 29 April
● 12:00 PM - German - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)
○ Previous: 2.7%
○ Forecast: 3.3%
● 12:30 PM - American - Building Permits Prel (February)
○ Previous: 1.386M
○ Forecast: 1.36M
● 12:30 PM - American - Building Permits Prel (March)
○ Forecast: 1.35M
● 12:30 PM - American - Durable Goods Orders MoM (March)
○ Previous: -1.4%
○ Forecast: 1.3%
● 12:30 PM - American - Housing Starts (February)
○ Previous: 1.487M
○ Forecast: 1.41M
● 12:30 PM - American - Housing Starts (March)
○ Forecast: 1.4M
● 01:45 PM - Canadian - BoC Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 2.25%
○ Forecast: 2.25%
● 01:45 PM - Canadian - BoC Monetary Policy Report
● 06:00 PM - Fed Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 3.75%
○ Forecast: 3.75%
● 06:30 PM - Fed Press Conference
Thursday 30 April
● 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Manufacturing PMI (April)
○ Previous: 50.4
○ Forecast: 50.6
● 01:30 AM - Chinese - NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (April)
○ Previous: 50.1
○ Forecast: 50.4
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (April)
○ Previous: 50.8
○ Forecast: 50.7
● 05:00 AM - Japanese - Consumer Confidence (April)
○ Previous: 33.3
● 05:30 AM - French - GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q1)
○ Previous: 1.2%
○ Forecast: 1.0%
● 06:45 AM - French - Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)
○ Previous: 1.7%
○ Forecast: 1.8%
● 07:00 AM - Spanish - GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q1)
○ Previous: 2.7%
○ Forecast: 2.2%
● 08:00 AM - German - GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q1)
○ Previous: 0.4%
○ Forecast: 0.5%
● 09:00 AM - European - GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q1)
○ Previous: 1.2%
○ Forecast: 0.8%
● 09:00 AM - European - Inflation Rate YoY Flash (April)
○ Previous: 2.6%
○ Forecast: 2.9%
● 11:00 AM - UK - BoE Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 3.75%
○ Forecast: 3.75%
● 12:15 PM - European - Deposit Facility Rate
○ Previous: 2.0%
○ Forecast: 2%
● 12:15 PM - European - ECB Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 2.15%
○ Forecast: 2.15%
● 12:30 PM - American - Core PCE Price Index MoM (March)
○ Previous: 0.4%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
● 12:30 PM - American - GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q1)
○ Previous: 0.5%
○ Forecast: 1.5%
● 12:30 PM - American - Personal Income MoM (March)
○ Previous: -0.1%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
● 12:30 PM - American - Personal Spending MoM (March)
○ Previous: 0.4%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
● 12:45 PM - European - ECB Press Conference
Friday 01 May
● 02:00 PM - American - ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)
○ Previous: 52.7
○ Forecast: 52.5
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 27 April
● VERIZON
● Galp Energia
● Universal Health Services
Tuesday 28 April
● CMS Energy
● T-Mobile US
● General Motors
● United Parcel Service
● Starbucks
● VISA
● Mondelez
● Novartis
● BP
● BARCLAYS
● COCA-COLA
● Booking
● Robinhood
● Airbus
Wednesday 29 April
● Alphabet
● MICROSOFT
● META
● Ford Motor
● Deutsche Bank
● Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
● Chipotle Mexican Grill
● UBS Group
● Cognizant Technology Solutions
● Qualcomm
● Banco Santander
● ASTRAZENECA
● AMAZON
● LLOYDS BANKING
● EBAY
● AENA
● Adidas
● Advanced Semiconductor Engineering
● BIOGEN
● Iberdrola
● Abbvie
Thursday 30 April
● First Solar
● CATERPILLAR
● Altria
● APPLE
● Mastercard
● ING GROEP
● Amgen
● Merck
● Credit Agricole
● Eli Lilly & Co
● Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria
● BNP Paribas
● Société Générale
● AIG
● Repsol
● TechnipFMC
● Air France-KLM
● Prysmian
● BASF
● Norwegian Cruise Line
● DHL Group
● PUMA
● CaixaBank
● Altri
Friday 01 May
● Moderna
● Dominion Energy
● EXXON MOBIL
● CHEVRON
● Colgate-Palmolive
● Aon
● WisdomTree
● NATWEST
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of April 24, 2026
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