Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
- OPEC+ agreed to a further oil output increase starting in October as it seeks to regain market share amid an anticipated weakening of global demand.
- After losing a confidence vote, François Bayrou is no longer France’s Prime Minister, marking the fourth time the country has changed its head of government in just two years.
- The U.K. housing market continued its slowdown in August, with sales activity expected to remain flat over the next three months.
- Fueled by expectations of a Fed rate cut, U.S. mortgage rates dropped to an 11-month low of 6.35%. However, high home prices and a softening job market remain significant hurdles for buyers.
- Turkey’s central bank cut its key interest rate for a second consecutive meeting, lowering it to 40.5% from 43% as underlying inflation cooled in August.
- The European Central Bank held its key deposit rate steady at 2%.
- U.S. consumer prices rose to 2.9% in August, up from 2.7% in July.
- The number of Americans filing for initial unemployment benefits jumped last week to its highest level since October 2021, signaling a further softening of the labor market.
- A judge blocked President Donald Trump from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to remain on the board while her legal challenge proceeds, and The Senate Banking Committee advanced Stephen Miran’s nomination to the Fed, a move that could influence the upcoming meeting.
- Japan’s economy continued to grow in the second quarter, expanding by 2.2% on an annualized basis, according to revised data.
- Following the exit of Shigeru Ishiba, Japanese markets are bracing for a political shift, with stocks supported by hopes that prolonged political uncertainty will pause the central bank's rate hikes.
- Fitch Ratings nudged up its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.4%, citing a less pessimistic outlook for China and Europe.
- In August, China's consumer-price index fell by 0.4% year-over-year, following a flat reading in July. The producer-price index also declined to 2.9%. While this could suggest that recent efforts to curb corporate price wars are having some effect, the main issue of weak domestic demand persists.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- The NZD/CAD is up more than 2.30%.
- The AUD/USD is up more than 2.20%.
- The NZD/USD is up more than 2.10%.
- The USD/CHF is down more than 1%.
- The EUR/AUD is down more than 1.50%.
- The USD/ZAR is down more than 2.30%.
Commodities
- Gold prices touched a new all-time high above $3,674.
- Lean Hog Futures are up more than 4.10%.
- Coffee Futures are up more than 3.90%.
- Natural gas Futures are down more than 6%.
- Live Cattle Futures are down more than 2.60%.
- Sugar Futures are down more than 2%.
- Palladium Futures are up mre than 8.30%.
- Silver Futures are up more than 3.90%.
Indices
- The Shenzhen Component Index is up more than 7%.
- The Kospi index is up more than 5.40%
- The Nikkei 225 is up more than 4%.
- The S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones all touched new highs this week.
Shares
Tops
- Oracle: +36.68%
- Warner Bros. Discovery: +34.97%
- Micron Technology: +26.69%
- Magazine Luiza: +20.19%
- Lam Research: +18.35%
- ARM Holdings: +17.97%
- Broadcom: +17.89%
- Paramount Skydance: +17.02%
- Centene: +16.51%
- UnitedHealth: +15.52%
- Applovin: +14.77%
- KLA: +13.77%
- Anglo American: +11.28%
- Cyrela Brazil Reality: +10.65%
Flops
- Synopsys: -26.00%
- Lulumon athletica: -17.48%
- The Trade Desk: -16.04%
- Humana: -16.36%
This Week’s News to Follow
Monday 15 September
- 02:00 AM - Chinese Industrial Production YoY (August)
- Previous: 5.7%
- Forecast: 5.8%
- 02:00 AM - Chinese Retail Sales YoY (August)
- Previous: 3.7%
- Forecast: 3.8%
Tuesday 16 September
- 06:00 AM - UK Unemployment Rate (July)
- Previous: 4.7%
- Forecast: 4.7%
- 09:00 AM - German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)
- Previous: 34.7
- Forecast: 22
- 12:30 PM - Canadian Inflation Rate YoY (August)
- Previous: 1.7%
- Forecast: 1.8%
- 12:30 PM - American Retail Sales MoM (August)
- Previous: 0.5%
- Forecast: 0.3%
- 11:50 PM - Japanese Balance of Trade (August)
- Previous: ¥-117.5B
- Forecast: ¥-150.0B
Wednesday 17 September
- 06:00 AM - UK Inflation Rate YoY (August)
- Previous: 3.8%
- Forecast: 3.8%
- 12:30 PM - American Building Permits Prel (August)
- Previous: 1.362M
- Forecast: 1.37M
- 12:30 PM - American Housing Starts (August)
- Previous: 1.428M
- Forecast: 1.38M
- 01:45 PM - Canadian BoC Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 2.75%
- Forecast: 2.75%
- 06:00 PM - American Fed Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 4.5%
- Forecast: 4.25%
- 06:00 PM - American FOMC Economic Projections
- 06:30 PM - American Fed Press Conference
Thursday 18 September
- 11:00 AM - UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 4.0%
- Forecast: 4%
- 11:30 PM - Japanese Inflation Rate YoY (August)
- Previous: 3.1%
- Forecast: 2.8%
Friday 19 September
- 03:00 AM - Japanese BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 0.5%
- Forecast: 0.5%
- 06:00 AM - UK Retail Sales MoM (August)
- Previous: 0.6%
- Forecast: 0.5%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Wednesday 17 September
- General Mills
Source: BBC, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, CNBC, Trading Economics, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 12 September 2025
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