Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
- China's manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in five months in August, driven by a sharp rise in new orders according to private PMI surveys.
- The Eurozone economy expanded very slowly in August. While manufacturing improved, weak services growth held the economy back, despite the first increase in new orders since May 2024.
- Eurozone retail sales growth slowed further in July, casting doubt on whether consumer spending can continue to offset the impact of US tariffs. Sales fell by 0.5% on the month but were still up 2.2% compared to a year ago.
- Preliminary data from Eurostat shows that annual inflation in the Euro area picked up slightly to 2.1% in August, from 2.0% in July.
- The Ifo Institute has cut Germany’s growth forecasts, now expecting the Europe’s largest economy to expand by only 0.2% this year and 1.3% in 2026, largely due to the impact of tariffs.
- Japan's service sector saw slower growth in August. While domestic demand remained strong, companies reduced staffing for the first time in almost two years.
- Japanese real wages turned positive in July (a first since the beginning of the year), thanks to strong summer bonuses. Consumer spending also rose for the third consecutive month, up 1.4% from a year ago.
- Malaysia’s Central Bank has kept its policy rate steady at 2.75%.
- Australia's GDP expanded more than expected, growing by 1.8% year-over-year at its fastest pace since September 2023.
- In Switzerland, consumer prices fell by 0.1% last month.
- US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to formalize a lower tariff on Japanese auto imports, reducing it from 27.5% to 15%.
- The US labor market showed further signs of softening in August, as new applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected. The number of job openings slightly declined to 7.2 million, although the hiring and layoff rates remained steady, indicating a market that is slowing rather than stalling.
- Canada's trade deficit narrowed in July as exports began to recover, a sign of a tenuous rebound from the impact of US tariffs imposed earlier this year. Economists note that despite the improvement, overall trade remains weak.
- India has simplified its Goods and Services Tax (GST) to a two-rate structure of 5% and 18%. The move, which replaces the previous four-tier system, is intended to boost domestic consumption.
- Japan's government bond yields have hit new record highs. The yield on the 30-year bond surged by over 100 basis points this year to reach 3.286%, while the yield on the 20-year bond climbed to 2.695%, its highest level since 1999.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- The NZD/USD and the JPY/EUR are down more than 0.55%.
- The JPY/EUR is down more than 0.60%.
- The USD/JPY is up more than 0.75%.
- The USD/CHF is up more than 0.55%.
- The EUR/CAD is up more than 0.40%.
Commodities
- Orange Juice prices are down more than 9.90%.
- Robusta coffee prices are down more than 9.30%.
- Cocoa prices are down more than 5.50%.
- Natural gas prices are up more than 7.40%.
- Gold prices are up more than 2.89% and reached a new record high above $3,578.
- Silver and Palladium prices are up more than 2.70%.
Indices
- The S&P 500 closed at a new record high on Thursday. This came as new labor market data did not change investor expectations for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, just one day before the key U.S. monthly jobs report.
- The Brazilian Bovespa index is up more than 1.25%.
- The German DAX 40 index is down more than 1.70%.
- The Australian S&P/ASX 200 is down more than 1.40%
Shares
Tops
- Cosan: +26.77%
- Raizen: +20.56%
- Magazine Luiza: +20.14%
- Fresnillo: +18.41%
- Alphabet: +12.09%
- Western Digital: +11.85%
- Autodesk: +10.83%
- Seagate Technology Holding: +10.10%
- NetApp: +9.41%
Flops
- Marvell Technology: -15.57%
- Dollar Tree: -12.89%
- Brown Forman: -10.53%
- Super Micro Computer: -9.19%
This Week’s News to Follow
Monday 08 September
- French confidence vote
- 03:00 AM - Chinese Balance of Trade (August)
- Previous: $98.24B
- Forecast: $91.0B
- 03:00 AM - Chinese Exports YoY (August)
- Previous: 7.2%
- Forecast: 6.6%
- 03:00 AM - Chinese Imports YoY (August)
- Previous: 4.1%
- Forecast: 5.0%
- 06:00 AM - German Balance of Trade (July)
- Previous: €14.9B
- Forecast: €21.4B
Tuesday 09 September
- 12:30 AM - Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (September)
- Previous: 5.7%
- Forecast: 1.0%
- 01:30 AM - Australian NAB Business Confidence (August)
- Previous: 7
- Forecast: 8
Wednesday 10 September
- 01:30 AM - Chinese Inflation Rate YoY (August)
- Previous: 0.0%
- Forecast: -0.1%
- 12:30 PM - American PPI MoM (August)
- Previous: 0.9%
- Forecast: 0.6%
Thursday 11 September
- 12:15 PM - European Deposit Facility Rate
- Previous: 2%
- Forecast: 2%
- 12:15 PM - European ECB Interest Rate Decision
- Previous: 2.15%
- Forecast: 2.15%
- 12:30 PM - American Core Inflation Rate YoY (August)
- Previous: 3.1%
- Forecast: 3.1%
- 12:30 PM - American Inflation Rate YoY (August)
- Previous: 2.7%
- Forecast: 2.8%
- 12:45 PM - European ECB Press Conference
Friday 12 September
- 06:00 AM - UK GDP MoM (July)
- Previous: 0.4%
- Forecast: 0.1%
- 02:00 PM - American Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (September)
- Previous: 58.2
- Forecast: 57
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 09 September
- Oracle
- Gamestop
Thursday 11 September
- Adobe
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, CNBC, Trading Economics, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 4 September 2025
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