On Monday 26th: German Ifo Business Climate and American Durable Goods Orders MoM
On Tuesday 27th: Nothing
On Wednesday 28th: Australian Monthly CPI Indicator and German GfK Consumer Confidence
On Thursday 29th: German Inflation Rate YoY Prel and American GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est
On Friday 30th: Japanese Consumer Confidence, French Inflation Rate YoY Prel, European Inflation Rate YoY Flash, Canadian GDP Growth Rate Annualized,, American Core PCE Price Index MoM, American Personal Income MoM and American Personal Spending MoM
Monday 26th of August
Germany's business climate continued its downward spiral in July 2024, as the Ifo Business Climate indicator fell for the third consecutive month to a new low of 87. This marked a significant decline from the previous month's reading of 88.6. The deteriorating sentiment reflects a growing pessimism among German companies, with both current conditions and future expectations worsening. Market participants will closely monitor the release of the August Ifo Business Climate data, scheduled for 8:00 AM GMT.
The US manufacturing sector experienced a sharp downturn in June 2024, as new orders for manufactured durable goods plummeted by 6.6% month-over-month. This marked a significant reversal from the four consecutive months of increases and fell far short of market expectations for a modest 0.3% rise.
Transportation equipment was the primary driver of the decline, with orders in this sector falling significantly. Capital goods, primary metals, and computers and related products also experienced a decrease in orders. However, there were some bright spots, with orders for fabricated metal products, machinery, communications equipment, and electrical equipment, appliances, and components showing growth.
Market participants anticipate a slight improvement in durable goods orders for July, with expectations for a modest decline of 0.3%. The official data is scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
Tuesday 27th of August
Nothing
Wednesday 28th of August
Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 3.8% in June 2024, down from the six-month high of 4% recorded in May. This moderation was primarily driven by a decline in transport prices. Additionally, inflation rates for health, recreation and culture, and education also softened. However, housing costs continued to rise, while food and non-alcoholic beverage prices remained unchanged.
The monthly CPI excluding volatile items and travel stood at 4% in June, indicating that underlying inflationary pressures persist. Despite this, the overall inflation rate remains outside the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2-3%.
Market participants anticipate a further decline in the monthly CPI for July, with expectations for a rate of 3.7%. The official data is scheduled for release at 1:30 AM GMT.
Germany's consumer confidence rebounded significantly in August 2024, as the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator climbed to -18.4 from -21.6 in the previous month. This marked the highest level of consumer sentiment since April 2022, surpassing market expectations.
The improvement was driven by a combination of factors. Easing cost pressures and rising wages boosted income expectations, reaching their highest point in nearly three years. Additionally, consumers expressed greater optimism about the overall economic outlook and increased their propensity to spend.
While the tendency to save remained relatively unchanged, the overall uptick in consumer confidence suggests a more positive outlook for the German economy. However, market participants anticipate a slight decline in consumer confidence for September, with forecasts predicting a return to -22.
Major Earnings Releases:
- Ageas
- NVIDIA
- Salesforce
Thursday 29th of August
Germany's annual inflation rate slightly increased to 2.3% in July 2024, up from 2.2% in the previous month. This aligns with preliminary estimates and marks a continuation of the inflationary trend. Food prices accelerated, contributing to the overall increase. While inflation for services remained stable, energy costs slowed their decline. On a monthly basis,consumer prices rose by 0.3%, the largest increase in three months. Market participants will closely monitor the August inflation data, scheduled for release at 12:00 PM GMT.
Rephrase with paragraphs, without list and bullet points = The US economy expanded an annualized 2.8% in Q2, up from 1.4% in Q1, and above forecasts of 2%, the advance estimate showed. Consumer spending rose faster , led by a rebound in consumption of goods. Also, private inventories added to the growth, after being a drag in the past 2 periods, led by wholesale trade and retail trade industries. Meanwhile, nonresidential investment accelerated, while intellectual property products eased and investment in structures sank . Also, government spending increased more led by defense. On the other hand, residential investment contracted for the 1st time in a year and net trade dragged down on the growth for a 2nd consecutive quarter as imports rose faster than exports. Market participants expect American GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est for Q2 to increase to 2.8% when the data is released at 12:30 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Release:
- Pernod-Ricard
- Best Buy
- Dell
Friday 30th of August
The US economy demonstrated robust growth in the second quarter of 2024, expanding at an annualized rate of 2.8%. This surpassed market expectations of 2% and marked a significant acceleration from the 1.4% growth recorded in the first quarter.
Consumer spending played a pivotal role in driving this growth, with a notable rebound in goods consumption. Additionally, private inventories contributed positively to the economy, reversing the negative impact seen in the previous two quarters. The wholesale and retail trade sectors led this inventory accumulation.
Investment in nonresidential fixed assets also gained momentum, while intellectual property products experienced a slowdown and investment in structures declined. Government spending increased, primarily driven by defense expenditures.
However, residential investment contracted for the first time in a year, and net trade continued to drag down growth for the second consecutive quarter as imports outpaced exports.
Despite these mixed elements, the overall economic picture for the second quarter is positive. Market participants anticipate a slight upward revision in the second estimate of GDP growth, with forecasts projecting an increase to 2.8%. The official data is scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone rose to 2.6% in July 2024, up from 2.5% in June. This aligns with preliminary estimates and exceeds initial market expectations of a slowdown to 2.4%.
Energy costs continued to rise significantly, driving up overall inflation. Non-energy industrial goods also experienced accelerated price increases. However, inflation for food, alcohol, and tobacco moderated slightly.
The core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, remained unchanged at 2.9%, surpassing initial market expectations of 2.8%. Among the Eurozone's largest economies, France and Germany recorded the highest inflation rates at 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, while Italy's inflation rate remained lower at 1.6%.
Market participants will closely monitor the release of the August Eurozone inflation data, scheduled for 9:00 AM GMT, for further insights into price pressures within the region.
The Canadian economy demonstrated a modest improvement in the first quarter of 2024, expanding by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter. This marked an acceleration from the downwardly revised flat reading in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Household spending played a key role in driving this growth, with a notable increase in spending on services such as telecommunications, rent, and air transport. While imports saw a slight rise, exports grew at a slightly faster pace, contributing positively to the economy.
Business capital investment also expanded, driven primarily by increased spending on engineering structures, particularly within the oil and gas sector.
On an annualized basis, real GDP growth reached 1.7%, the highest rate since the first quarter of 2023. However, this fell short of market expectations, which had anticipated a stronger growth rate of 2.2%.
Looking ahead, market participants anticipate a further increase in Canadian GDP growth for the second quarter, with forecasts pointing to a rate of 0.5%. The official data is scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
The core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose by 0.2% in June 2024. This marked an acceleration from the previous month's increase of 0.1% and exceeded market expectations of a 0.1% rise.
While the headline inflation rate remained unchanged, the core PCE inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose to 2.6% on an annual basis. This figure is consistent with the previous month's reading and suggests that underlying inflationary pressures are persisting.
Market participants anticipate the core PCE price index to remain unchanged in July, with a forecast of 0.2% month-over-month growth. The official data is scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
Personal income in the United States increased by a modest 0.2% in June 2024, down from a revised 0.4% growth in May and falling short of market expectations. This indicates a slowdown in the pace of income growth in the country. Market participants anticipate that personal income growth will remain relatively stable in February, with a forecast of 0.2% month-over-month increase. The official data is scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
Consumer spending in the United States held steady in June 2024, increasing by 0.3% compared to the previous month.This aligns with market expectations and follows an upwardly revised 0.4% rise in May.
While the overall trend remains positive, a slight slowdown in consumer spending is anticipated for July. Market participants are forecasting a decrease of 0.2% in the month-over-month change in retail sales. The official data will be released on July 12th at 12:30 PM GMT.
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