On Monday 2nd: Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI
On Tuesday 3rd: American ISM Manufacturing PMI
On Wednesday 4th: Australian GDP Growth Rate QoQ, Canadian Balance of Trade, Canadian BoC Interest Rate Decision and American JOLTs Job Openings
On Thursday 5th: Australian Balance of Trade and American ISM Services PMI
On Friday 6th: German Balance of Trade, Canadian Unemployment Rate, American Non Farm Payrolls, American Unemployment Rate and Canadian Ivey PMI
Monday 2nd of September
China's manufacturing sector experienced a contraction in July 2024, as the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 from 51.8 in June. This marked the first decline in factory activity since last October, driven by a slump in new orders amid weaker demand and reduced client budgets.
Purchasing levels also retreated, leading to a depletion of stockpiles and rising inventories of finished goods. While employment remained relatively stable, output growth slowed to its lowest level in nine months due to a decline in foreign orders.
On the pricing front, selling prices declined for the first time since May, reflecting increased competition. Input cost inflation eased to its lowest level in the current four-month sequence.
Despite these challenges, business sentiment improved slightly in July, supported by efforts to develop new products and expand business operations. However, market participants anticipate a further decline in the manufacturing PMI for August, with forecasts pointing to a reading of 49.6 when the data is released at 01:45 AM GMT.
Tuesday 3rd of September
The US manufacturing sector experienced a sharp downturn in July 2024, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI plummeted to 46.8 from 48.5 in the previous month. This marked the lowest reading since November 2023 and the 20th decline in activity over the past 21 periods.
The contraction was primarily driven by a decline in new orders, reflecting the impact of higher interest rates on goods demand. Backlogs also fell, leading to a sharp decrease in production. This reduced demand for capacity contributed to a decline in employment for the second consecutive month.
On the pricing side, factories faced rising input costs, particularly for metals and electrical components. This contributed to a faster increase in prices overall.
Market participants anticipate a slight improvement in the manufacturing PMI for August, with forecasts pointing to a reading of 47.5. The official data will be released at 2:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Release:
● Hewlett Packard
Wednesday 4th of September
The Australian economy experienced a slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2023, expanding by only 0.1% quarter-over-quarter. This marked the tenth consecutive period of growth but the weakest pace in six quarters.
Subdued domestic demand, a further decline in fixed investment, and a drag from net trade contributed to the slowdown.While household spending increased, fixed investment shrank for the first time in five quarters. Imports rose more rapidly than exports, but the buildup of inventories partially offset the negative impact of net trade.
On an annual basis, GDP growth eased to 1.1%, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2020. Market participants anticipate a slight improvement in GDP growth for the second quarter of 2024, with forecasts pointing to a rate of 0.3%.The official data will be released at 1:30 AM GMT.
Canada's trade balance swung back into surplus territory in June 2024, recording a surplus of CAD 0.64 billion. This marks the first trade surplus since February, following an upwardly revised deficit of CAD 1.61 billion in May.
The improvement was driven by a strong surge in exports, which rose by 5.5% to reach CAD 66.7 billion. This represents the highest export growth rate since February. Imports also increased, but at a slower pace of 1.9%, nearing the record high set in June 2022.
The shift to a trade surplus suggests a strengthening of Canada's trade position. Market participants are anticipating a further increase in the trade surplus for July, with forecasts pointing to a figure of CAD 1.6 billion. The official data will be released at 12:30 PM GMT.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) continued its easing cycle in July 2024, reducing the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% in July. This marked the second consecutive rate cut, following a 25 basis point reduction in June. The decision aligned with expectations from a portion of the market.
The BoC's Governing Council cited excess supply in the Canadian economy as a contributing factor to the recent slowdown in inflation. The moderation in the labor market further supported the decision to loosen monetary policy. The central bank also highlighted that lower interest rates could help alleviate upward pressure on mortgage and shelter costs,which have been significant contributors to inflation.
Market participants anticipate the BoC to maintain interest rates at 4.5% in the upcoming interest rate decision, scheduled for release at 1:45 PM GMT.
The number of job openings in the United States remained relatively unchanged in June 2024, hovering around 8.184 million. This figure is only slightly below the upwardly revised May data of 8.23 million and exceeds market expectations of 8 million.
While the job market remains robust, there are signs of cooling. The number of job openings has stabilized, and other labor market indicators have shown signs of moderation. Market participants anticipate a slight decline in job openings for July, with forecasts pointing to a figure of 8.09 million. The official data will be released at 2:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Release:
● Photronics
Thursday 5th of September
Australia's trade surplus on goods expanded to AUD 5.59 billion in June 2024, surpassing market expectations. This marks a significant improvement from the revised figure of AUD 5.05 billion in the previous month.
The increase in the trade surplus was driven by stronger export growth, which outpaced import growth. Exports rose by 1.7%, while imports increased by 1.9%. This positive trade balance reflects a favorable trade environment for Australia.
Market participants will be closely watching the July trade data, scheduled for release at 1:30 AM GMT, to assess the sustainability of the trade surplus and its impact on the overall Australian economy.
The US services sector rebounded in July 2024, as the ISM Services PMI rose to 51.4 from the previous month's low of 48.8. This exceeded market expectations of 51, signaling a moderate recovery in the sector.
New orders rebounded, driving an increase in business activity and reducing the backlog of orders. The rise in demand from foreign markets played a significant role in this improvement. Employment levels within the services sector also saw a second consecutive increase, challenging the concerns raised by the weak jobs report earlier this year.
However, inflationary pressures persisted, with the ISM's price gauge accelerating further. Public administration services,accommodation and food services, finance, educational services, and healthcare all experienced higher costs.
Despite the overall improvement in the services sector, market participants anticipate a slight decline in the PMI for August, with forecasts pointing to a reading of 51.2. The official data will be released at 2:00 PM GMT.
Major Earnings Release:
● BioMerieux
Friday 6th of September
Germany's trade surplus narrowed to €20.4 billion in June 2024, down from a revised €25.3 billion in May. This marks the smallest surplus since last October, as a decline in exports outpaced import growth. The shrinking surplus is contrary to market expectations, which forecasted a value of €23.5 billion.
Market participants will closely monitor the July trade balance data, scheduled for release on August 29th at 6:00 AM GMT. This data will provide further insights into Germany's trade performance and its impact on the overall economy.
Canada's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.4% in July 2024, maintaining the highest level since January 2022.While this result was slightly better than market expectations of 6.5%, it still indicates a softening in the labor market,aligning with the Bank of Canada's forecast.
The continued stability in the unemployment rate suggests that the recent rate cuts implemented by the BoC are starting to have a moderating effect on the labor market. However, it's important to monitor future data releases to assess the long-term impact of these policy changes.
Market participants anticipate the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 6.4% in August, with the official data scheduled for release at 12:30 PM GMT.
The US labor market showed signs of cooling in July 2024, as the economy added only 114,000 jobs, falling short of market expectations of 175,000. This marked a significant slowdown from the revised 179,000 jobs added in June.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in the previous month. This represents the highest unemployment rate since October 2021 and exceeds market expectations of 4.1%.
Overall, the July labor market data indicates a moderation in job growth and a slight increase in unemployment. Market participants anticipate further cooling in the labor market in August, with forecasts for job growth to slow to 100,000 and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%.
Canada's economic growth showed signs of moderation in July 2024, as the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dipped to 57.6 from 62.5 in June. This reading, although lower than market expectations of 60, still indicates a period of solid economic expansion for the 12th consecutive month.
Despite the slowdown, the PMI remains above 50, which signifies growth in economic activity. This suggests that the Canadian economy is still expanding, albeit at a slower pace than in previous months.
Market participants are cautiously optimistic about August's PMI data, with forecasts pointing to a slight increase to 57.9.The official data release is scheduled for 2:00 PM GMT.
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