Crash Danger in the DAX: How Long Will the 24,000-Point Bastion Hold?
The German leading index is teetering dangerously close to the abyss. The all-important question on the Frankfurt trading floor is: How long can the psychologically essential bastion of 24,000 points withstand this massive pressure? The start of the week delivered a worrying picture with a sluggish minus of 0.19% at 24,083.53 points. A toxic cocktail of persistently exploding oil prices, a completely opaque U.S. strategy in the Iran conflict, and gloomy economic prospects is rigorously nipping any attempt at a new rally in the bud. To make matters worse: Kevin Warsh, touted as the future Fed Chairman, has already ruthlessly declared war on inflation. The hoped-for interest rate cuts seem to be an absolute illusion in this escalating environment of energy costs!
Fed Shock Ahead? The Highly Dangerous Interest Rate Scenario for the Stock Market!
A ruthless look at the CME FedWatch tool reveals the unvarnished truth: the market has already priced in a zero-move for tomorrow's central bank meeting at 100%. But exactly in this supposed safety lurks a highly dangerous trap! What happens if brutal interest rate hike fantasies suddenly crash onto the trading floor? This horror scenario is absolutely not factored into the prices and would inevitably plunge global stock markets into a severe correction. This hammer blow would hit the DAX doubly hard due to Germany's fatal energy dependency—especially since the leading index has been powerlessly lagging behind the runaway Wall Street for weeks anyway. The current week of central banks will mercilessly reveal whether this shock scenario becomes reality.
Siemens Energy Triumphs, Rheinmetall Booms—and Bayer Trembles!
At the individual stock level, Siemens Energy defied the gloomy market sentiment on Monday and crowned itself the sovereign daily winner with a strong gain of 1.3%. Close on its heels followed the defense contractor Rheinmetall (+0.9%), which, in addition to bulging order books, is currently experiencing a veritable flood of new job applicants. However, problem child Bayer is once again causing deep worry lines for investors. Barely had the stock climbed the magic 50-euro mark when the shares abruptly shifted into reverse again. Yet, there are real fundamental bright spots: the radical restructuring is noticeably taking effect, the group has become more agile, and the financial targets for 2025 have been met. But the bitter tipping point remains the endless Monsanto legal drama. As long as this judicial sword of Damocles hovers over Leverkusen, the big price breakout will inevitably fall by the wayside!
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