Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
- President Trump announced Monday his intent to nominate E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Antoni is known for his critiques of how the BLS gathers jobs data.
- President Trump announced on Monday a 90-day tariff extension for China, delaying increases that were scheduled for Tuesday.
- The United States has officially confirmed that it will not impose tariffs on gold imports.
- The Alaska summit on Friday is drawing significant attention from markets globally, as they await any signs of progress towards resolving the Ukraine war.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut its cash rate to 3.60% and indicated that further reductions are likely.
- Ahead of its late July decision, senior Bank of Canada officials debated cutting interest rates, according to recently released minutes. One faction argued that sufficient monetary easing had already been provided to support the economy through the current period of heightened trade uncertainty.
- Thailand's central bank resumed cutting interest rates, lowering them to 1.50% from 1.75%, in an effort to support an economy facing domestic instability and tariff challenges.
- While US inflation stayed flat at 2.7% in July, a closer look reveals that prices, excluding food and energy, climbed 3.1% over the last 12 months, surpassing economists' predictions.
- Despite swings in tariffs, the U.K. economy continued to grow in the second quarter, with GDP rising 0.3% in the three months ending June. However, this marks a deceleration from the 0.7% growth recorded in the first quarter.
- President Trump recently granted China a 90-day tariff delay to allow more time for trade negotiations. The final outcome remains uncertain, as the President hasn't specified additional tariff hikes beyond the current 30% if a deal isn't reached. It's noteworthy that U.S. reliance on Chinese imports has decreased significantly since tariffs began in 2018, with China now accounting for only 12% of all U.S. imports, down from a 2018 peak of 22%. This shift comes as other Asian nations increase their manufacturing output.
- Economists are concerned as China's new yuan loans unexpectedly dropped by 50 billion in July, the first such decrease in roughly two decades. This signals weak economic demand, and even government subsidies for consumer loans might not be able to offset decelerating growth and soft mortgage demand.
- Japan’s economy posted modest growth in the April–June quarter, with real GDP expanding by 0.3% from the previous three months. The January–March figures were also revised higher, showing a slight 0.1% increase, despite ongoing uncertainty over global trade.
- U.S. wholesale inflation recently hit a new high, likely pushing up the Fed's preferred price measure. In July, wholesale prices saw their biggest monthly jump since March 2022, rising 0.9% due to increased costs for both goods and services. This producer-price index suggests companies are facing more price pressure from ongoing tariffs, which could eventually impact consumer costs.
- Eurozone industrial production fell more than anticipated in June, largely due to the impact of tariffs. Output dropped 1.3% month-over-month, completely reversing the 1.1% increase seen in May.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
- The EUR/GBP is down for the 3rd week in a row.
- The GBP/JPY touched its highest level since July 2024.
Commodities
- China's new tariff significantly expands the existing duties placed on certain canola imports since March.
- Diesel prices are down for the 3rd week in a row.
Indices
- The Esp35 reached an all-time high above 15,299 points.
- The ChinaA50 hit its highest level since October 2024.
- The Uk100, Ita40, Aus200 and Jp225 indices hit an all-time high.
- Wall Street indices also reached record high.
Shares
Tops
- Paramount Skydance: +23.54%
- TKO Group Holdings: +21.08%
- Intel: +19.30%
- Viatris: +18.78%
- Commerzbank: +17.65%
- Spirax Group: +16.78%
- Albemarie: +16.56%
- Aptic: +12.83%
- MRV: +12.56%
- Expedia Group: +12.30%
- Sartorius: +12.30%
Flops
- The Trade Desk: -44.07%
- Raizen: -22.22%
- Beazley: -16.60%
- Datadog: -15.72%
- CVC Brasil: -15.13%
- Tapestry: -14.79%
- Azzas 2154: -14.43%
- Axon entreprise: -13.54%
- Atlassian: -13.09%
- Entrain: -12.61%
This Week’s News to Follow
Tuesday 19 August
- 12:30 AM - Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (August)
- Previous: 0.6%
- Forecast: 0.2%
- 12:30 PM - Canadian Inflation Rate YoY (July)
- Previous: 1.9%
- Forecast: 2.0%
- 12:30 PM - American Building Permits Prel (July)
- Previous: 1.393M
- Forecast: 1.39M
- 12:30 PM - American Housing Starts (July)
- Previous: 1.321M
- Forecast: 1.30M
- 11:50 PM - Japanese Balance of Trade (July)
- Previous: ¥153.1B
- Forecast: ¥250.0B
Wednesday 20 August
- RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
- Previous: 3.25%
- Forecast: 3.0%
- 06:00 AM - UK Inflation Rate YoY (July)
- Previous: 3.6%
- Forecast: 4.0%
- 06:00 PM - American FOMC Minutes
- 11:00 PM - Australien S&P Flash Manufacturing PMI (August)
- Previous: 51.3
- Forecast: 51.5
- 10:00 PM - Australien S&P Flash Services PMI (August)
- Previous: 54.1
- Forecast: 54.4
Thursday 21 August
- 12:30 AM - Japanese S&P Flash Manufacturing PMI (August)
- Previous: 48.9
- Forecast: 49.4
- 12:30 AM - Japanese S&P Flash Services PMI (August)
- Previous: 53.6
- Forecast: 52.8
- 07:15 AM - French HCOB Flash Manufacturing PMI (August)
- Previous: 48.2
- Forecast: 49.6
- 07:15 AM - French HCOB Flash Services PMI (August)
- Previous: 48.5
- Forecast: 49.0
- 07:30 AM - German HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)
- Previous: 49.1
- Forecast: 49.8
- 07:30 AM - German HCOB Flash Services PMI (August)
- Previous: 50.6
- Forecast: 50.3
- 08:00 AM - European HCOB Flash Manufacturing PMI (August)
- Previous: 49.8
- Forecast: 50
- 08:00 AM - European HCOB Flash Services PMI (August)
- Previous: 51
- Forecast: 51.5
- 08:30 AM - UK S&P Global Manuffacturing PMI Flash (August)
- Previous: 48.0
- Forecast: 48.6
- 08:30 AM - UK S&P Global Services PMI Flash (August)
- Previous: 51.8
- Forecast: 51.7
- 01:45 AM - American S&P Global Manuffacturing PMI Flash (August)
- Previous: 49.8
- Forecast: 49.7
- 01:45 AM - American S&P Global Services PMI Flash (August)
- Previous: 55.7
- Forecast: 53
- 02:00 PM - American Existing Home Sales (July)
- Previous: 3.93M
- Forecast: 3.92M
- 11:30 PM - Japanese Inflation Rate YoY (July)
- Previous: 3.3%
- Forecast: 3.3%
- Jackson Hole Symposium
Friday 22 August
- 06:00 AM - UK Retail Sales MOM (July)
- Previous: 0.9%
- Forecast: 0.3%
- Jackson Hole Symposium
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 19 August
- HOME DEPOT
- Medtronic
Wednesday 20 August
- Lowe'S Cos
- TJX Companies
- BAIDU
- Target
Thursday 21 August
- WALMART
- AEGON
- Weibo Corporation ADR
- Zoom
Source: Trading Economics, The Wall Street Journal, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 15 August 2025
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